What do stats say about Premiership after the split?

When the Scottish Premiership split was introduced in season 2000-01, it was hailed as a device that brought the league into the 21st century, adding end-of-season intrigue.

The last round of fixtures before this season's split certainly brought that, with three teams still in the running for the one remaining top-six place.

But ask Opta Sports' analytics computer and it suggests we are unlikely to see any movement in the current positions come the end of the season.

Will any of the sides disprove the predictions?

Only three positions in the top six can realistically change hands.

Celtic only need a draw from Saturday's trip to face Dundee United to retain the league title, so no wonder Opta rates the chances of Brendan Rodgers' side blowing their 15-point lead at 0%.

Similarly, Rangers are all but guaranteed to finish second with their own 13-point cushion over Hibernian.

Meanwhile, despite having three of their five remaining matches in Paisley, St Mirren are 97.4% certain to remain sixth, given they are nine points behind both Dundee United and Aberdeen.

That means it is a three-way battle between Hibs, United and the Dons for third and the European qualification spots.

There are more detailed analyses of which European spots are up for grabs, but let us here consider who are favourites to finish third.

Hibs start with a three-point lead over the other two and, after a run of one defeat - to Celtic in the Scottish Cup - in 20 outings, they are rated at 80% to stay there.

United go into the final stretch on the back of three consecutive wins and also have three out of five games at home compared to their rivals' three aways.

However, one of those at Tannadice is against Celtic, although that is maybe balanced out by another being against St Mirren.

Aberdeen are also on a roll, Saturday's Scottish Cup semi-final win over Heart of Midlothian making it seven games unbeaten.

However, Jimmy Thelin's side have so far taken six fewer points from other teams in the top six than their two rivals for third.

Not only that, but one of their two remaining home games is against a Celtic side who have beaten them in their latest three meetings this season.

That makes a win in Saturday's visit by Hibs even more vital. Little wonder that Opta only gives Aberdeen a 36.1% chance of improving on fifth.

None of the sides consigned to the bottom six will head into Saturday's first fixtures with any great degree of confidence.

Hearts and Motherwell are both without a win in four outings, Kilmarnock have won one in seven, Ross County have sustained four straight defeats, Dundee have won just two in nine, while St Johnstone have one victory in five.

While Hearts' six-point lead over Dundee in the relegation play-off spot appears precarious - with Motherwell, who are one point worse off, even more under threat.

However, Opta suggests Hearts, who have three home games to come, have only a 0.1% chance of finishing second bottom while Well are rated at 4.1% despite having only two matches at Fir Park.

With Kilmarnock and County four points behind Well - and Dundee a further point adrift - it is statistically unlikely all three sides would be able to pick up enough points simultaneously to overtake the Steelmen or their Edinburgh rivals.

That leaves four sides battling to avoid the bottom two spots.

Kilmarnock, six points clear of St Johnstone at the foot of the table, are given only a 2.3% of finishing last, with County at 8.3% despite starting on the same points total.

The Ayrshire side have the advantage of three games at Rugby Park, where they have won a league high of 74% of their points, while their Dingwall rivals have only two at home.

However, County have won more points against sides in the bottom six than any of their relegation rivals, only losing three times in 15 games.

Should form against rival bottom-six sides continue, Hearts will be well clear in seventh spot, but County would leapfrog Kilmarnock and be level with Motherwell.

Despite that, with home games against Hearts and Motherwell, County are given a 33.8% chance of finishing in the play-off spot, only 0.4% better off than Dundee.

The Dark Blues also have just two of their games at home, only Motherwell have gathered fewer points against their bottom-six rivals this season and, along with the Lanarkshire side, have gathered the least points since the turn of the year.

They also start their bottom-six campaign at Tynecastle, where Hearts have prevailed on their latest three visits.

No wonder Dundee are viewed by Opta as the most likely side to be caught should St Johnstone stage a late survival bid.

That is an unlikely scenario, though, with Saints rated as 80.1% certainties to face automatic relegation.

However, Simo Valakari's side have the third best record against bottom-six teams and have three of their five remaining games in Perth.

Will it still come down to the final day, when Tayside rivals Dundee are the visitors to McDiarmid Park?