Analysis: More than mid-term blues for the Tories

It was a stunningly bad night for the Conservative Party.

If replicated at a general election, results like last night's would not just mean Conservative defeat - they would mean Conservative annihilation.

The Labour victory in Mid-Bedfordshire is the largest numerical majority ever overturned in a by-election in history.

If you look at it in terms of percentages instead, then Tamworth is the second-biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour at a by-election since 1945.

It is not uncommon for some Conservative MPs privately to say that they don't believe the national opinion polls, which for some time now have consistently displayed large Labour leads.

They say that when they speak to voters there is frustration with the government, yes, but apathy towards the Labour Party and especially Sir Keir Starmer.

Well, these results suggest that the national polls are broadly right. And if this is what apathy looks like, Labour can no doubt live with that.

Other Conservative MPs acknowledge the fairly bleak picture but argue that they have never known the public be more volatile, more willing to change their minds.

Here there may be some small comfort for the Conservatives.

Many voters appear to have changed their minds about the Labour Party extremely quickly. What's to say they can't change their minds about the Conservative Party between now and the general election?

Rishi Sunak will spend the next year arguing, as at his party's conference earlier this month, that he embodies the change voters want.

If he can pull that off and win the Conservatives a fifth term in government, it would be an extraordinary feat.

These are not normal government mid-term blues. It is getting late.