Analysis: Tough week tests Starmer's leadership

9 months ago 64
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Sir Keir StarmerImage source, EPA

By Hannah Miller

Political correspondent, BBC News

"Labour has changed" - that's the headline message Keir Starmer's party have been shouting since the start of the year.

That change means a key threat to the Conservatives, who know that controversies surrounding Labour's former leader Jeremy Corbyn played into Boris Johnson's landslide victory in the general election in 2019.

That is why, politically, this week matters.

Two Labour parliamentary candidates, Azhar Ali and Graham Jones, have been suspended. In the case of Mr Ali, it is for apparently making antisemitic remarks at a meeting attended by local Labour politicians.

The hurt caused by antisemitism is obvious, and there is concern about community tensions that are potentially inflamed by the recordings published.

The whole saga is a reminder of the Labour Party's recent past, which the leadership would like to remain firmly in the past.

And as the key agent of that change, this crisis thrusts Keir Starmer's leadership into the spotlight in a week that "has not been the party's finest hour" (to quote Mike Katz, the national chair of the Jewish Labour Movement).

Sir Keir made it a personal pledge to eradicate antisemitism from the party. His initial decision not to suspend Rochdale candidate Mr Ali drew on the support he has earned in recent years among the Jewish community.

The party is trying to claim that Sir Keir moved "swiftly" once new revelations about Mr Ali's comments came to light. Sir Keir has described his eventual decision as "virtually unprecedented".

But there is frustration in the shadow Cabinet and several Labour MPs believe he should have moved more quickly, raising questions about their leader's judgement. It was always highly likely that more allegations were going to come to light, and the story was allowed to dominate the news cycle for almost 48 hours before the party withdrew its support.

There are parallels with the party's announcement last week that it was dropping the £28bn price tag on its programme of green investment.

Uncertainty had been swirling for weeks before the decision eventually came.

Critics of Sir Keir point to a national Savanta poll released on Wednesday morning, which found the Labour lead over the Conservatives fell by seven points in the aftermath of that decision - though it is important not to draw conclusions from just one poll.

Other opinion polls have had the gap between the two parties widening and Labour remain on course for victory in the forthcoming general election as they have consistently over the past year.

It is too soon to know what impact this week has had on voters' views of the leader.

If Keir Starmer does become the next prime minister, the judgement calls he has faced this week may pale in comparison to the decisions he could have to take on behalf of the country.

Whether this is damaging will depend on what message voters take from this whole situation: do they see leadership and tough decisions, or do they see delay and division?

Some will be encouraged that Keir Starmer has taken action to stop supporting a candidate in a by-election the party had a good chance of winning.

Others will be alarmed that antisemitic views continue to exist within the party despite his efforts, and don't appear to have been reported by those present.

And while it redoubles efforts to eradicate antisemitism, the party has to be sensitive to those voters who want it to go further in its criticism of Israel. The SNP have announced they'll call for a fresh vote on an immediate ceasefire in Gaza when Parliament returns next week - an issue that has already caused challenges for Labour.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives, themselves hardly united, are keen to make the most of any opportunity to highlight the challenges Labour is facing.

There are by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough taking place on Thursday. Both of them were Conservative-held seats. The Labour Party is hoping wins there will help them to change the narrative once again.

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