Analysis: What went wrong for the Conservatives in London?

2 years ago 39
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By Tim Donovan
Political Editor, BBC London

Image caption,

London councils are a sea of red, with Kensington and Chelsea the only central London council under Conservative control

The number of Conservative councillors elected in London has hit a record low.

Fewer than 440 councillors have won seats and the party lost power over key boroughs, including Westminster.

Tories remain in charge mainly on the Brexit-backing fringes of London - Bexley, Bromley and Hillingdon.

Is this the point to ask whether this is a crisis for the Tories in London and question their relevance in the capital?

Many Tories share that thought and are deeply concerned.

'An absence of holding to account'

Just because London is - and has been for some time - a "Labour-leaning" city does not lessen the significance of the stark Tory town hall decline this time, or in fact over the last three elections.

It is worth spelling out again, not least because this is the capital which was run by a Tory mayor just six years ago.

There are a few reasons why it matters. And not just for the Tories themselves as they undergo another round of soul-searching.

It means an absence of holding to account - and a threat to decent decision-making - across large areas of London, from Lambeth to Lewisham, from Newham to Islington.

And it also signifies a capital whose representation and political-thinking are becoming yet more at odds with the party governing the country - which cannot be good for either in the long-run.

The new political battle-lines could have long-term costs - Is anyone in any doubt that the reality and rhetoric around "levelling up", at least so far, is only driving wedges and deepening resentment?

It may be this is the only route to further electoral success for Boris Johnson, but some London Tories are asking whether it is a price worth paying.

Is one man's political ambition worth the destruction of the party in the capital, they ask.

'Thin gruel'

However, there are shafts of light for the Conservatives.

In Croydon they now have the first directly-elected mayor with an opportunity to show why it was right that financial mistakes and mismanagement by the previously Labour council should be punished at the ballot box.

In Harrow the Conservatives won and in Enfield they made decent gains. This is how you capitalise if incumbent administrations are factional or do not deliver.

But it is thin gruel when you look across the capital as a whole.

'Demographics'

And in the three Barnet constituencies - all with slim Conservative MP majorities - the pool of plugged-in and enthused local campaigners on hand to help with the next general election just got smaller.

There is another serious worry for the Conservatives - why the faces were so grim in Wandsworth and Westminster as the sun came up on Friday. It is about the demographics moving against them.

"Let's see what they... do with it now they've won it," snarled one Tory activist as he left the Wandsworth count.

But my guess from looking at the intake of victorious Labour councillors - young, diverse, energetic - is that they won't easily give up what they've won.

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