Ballot win Boris Johnson doesn't mean political escape

The festival of guesswork, the orgy of speculation.

Not even the Platinum Jubilee could dial it down.

The simple truth is the Partygate row has incensed lots of people and a growing number of Conservative MPs felt it was behaviour that was impossible to defend.

As Tory MPs decide whether to remove Boris Johnson from office, this is about more than just wine and leaving dos.

It's what it says about the prime minister's character that unnerves so many Tory MPs.

Some are blunt: either they remove Boris Johnson or the electorate removes him and them from government at the next election.

But plenty - including the rebels - expect Boris Johnson to win the confidence vote tonight.

But an arithmetic win is not the same as a political one.

Theresa May won a confidence vote easily, but was gone within six months.

What we will get tonight is an indisputable number: the number of Tory MPs who want the prime minister out.

It's a number that will hang around Boris Johnson's neck for the rest of his time in office.

He will argue other numbers matter far more: the nearly 14 million people who voted Conservative at the last election.

The whopping majority he won.

But make no mistake: confidence votes are almost always bad news for political leaders.