Canada's Trudeau faces no-confidence vote in parliament

Canadian lawmakers are set to vote on a motion that could bring down Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government and trigger an election, though it is unlikely to pass.

Wednesday's no-confidence vote is the first in a series of similar votes expected to be put forward by the opposition Conservative Party amid Trudeau's plummeting approval ratings.

The motion is expected to fail, as the leaders of two other political parties - the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois - have indicated that they will not support it.

Trudeau, who has been Canada’s prime minister for nine years, has been leading under a minority government.

Voting is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, on the same day as Trudeau is set to host outgoing French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron.

Trudeau has been facing growing pressure to step down in recent months.

His approval rating has plummeted from 63% when he was first elected to 28% in June of this year, according to one poll tracker, amid concerns about housing unaffordability and the rising costs of living. His Liberal party lost two consequential by-elections this summer in Toronto and Montreal.

A deal between his party and the NDP has helped him stay in power since Canada’s last federal election in 2021.

But the deal collapsed early in September after NDP leader Jagmeet Singh pulled out from the coalition, saying that the Liberals are “too weak” and “too selfish” to govern.

Trudeau’s leadership has been under threat since, with Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre stating that he would put forward a no-confidence vote.

The vote would need the approval of the majority of the 338 members of parliament (MPs) in order for it to pass.

The Liberal Party, which holds 153 seats, is expected to vote against it, while the Conservative Party, which holds 119 seats, will likely vote in favour.

The bulk of the other seats are held by the NDP and the Bloc Québécois - both have signalled they will vote against it.

Pierre Polievere, who has been leading in various national polls, has urged fellow MPs to vote in favour of the motion by outlining his vision for Canada under a Conservative government.

His plan, he said on Tuesday in parliament, is “to bring home the promise of Canada, of a powerful paycheque that earns affordable food, gas and homes and safe neighbourhoods”.

But Singh, the NDP leader, said he will vote against Poilievre’s motion because he believes the Conservative Party will cut social programmes like dental care and pharmacare if it comes to power.

The Bloc Québécois - a party whose aim is to represent the interests of Quebec, Canada’s French-speaking province - has said it believes it could work with the Liberal government to secure assurances for Quebec-focused social programmes.

Trudeau was at the UN General Assembly earlier this week in New York City, where on Monday he appeared as a guest on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

In his interview with Colbert, Trudeau acknowledged that Canadians were going through “a really tough time” and struggling to afford gas, groceries and rent.

But he defended his leadership, saying that his government had invested in Canadians and would continue to do so.

“I’m going to keep fighting,” he said.