Cavendish show backdrop to huge battle for Tour de France yellow

Such is the dominance of the Olympics, the Tour de France is taking a literal detour, finishing in a time trial on Nice’s grand promenade instead of the traditional sprint on Paris’ Champs-Elysees.

So perhaps it’s a relief, then, that Mark Cavendish will be there for the start in Florence on Saturday - the Briton being almost as ubiquitous as the Champs’ oily cobbles.

It’s hard to proclaim that this will be the final, final appearance of the 39-year-old, after being tempted out of retirement, given how many comebacks there have now been.

Last year he missed out on the Tour stage win record by centimetres in Bordeaux, only to crash out the following day.

But Cavendish’s past indifference about the prospect of achieving 35 stage wins, to Belgian legend Eddy Merckx’s 34, doesn’t deter others from desperately wanting his glittering career to end in a fairytale.

“I'm so happy I carried on," Cavendish said on Friday. "If anything I'm more ready than last year. Florence is beautiful - I lived here for 10 years, training on these roads.

"Starting here, and going on into France is perfect on an emotional level."

Cavendish has about "five or six" chances to do it on this 21-stage, three-week Tour which takes in 3,498km, with 52,000m of climbing – Cavendish’s least favourite pastime on a bike.

Competition will be very tough - with wins at this year’s Tours of Colombia and Hungary, he has some degree of form. But to take the one victory he needs will be possibly his biggest challenge of all, given how prolific the current world’s best Jasper Philipsen is.

The Belgian won four stages of last year’s race, and if anything is a better rider in 2024.

"We have nothing to lose," added Cavendish. "It's not like roulette - if I don't win, I don't lose the 34 stages I have."

Win or bust, surely this is the final time, right? "We'll see," said Astana team boss Alexandre Vinokourov, when Cavendish remained silent after the question was posed. "If he wins, why not."

In the general classification, you would think an injury to the world’s best rider might leave it a little lightweight – but if anything it could tee-up one of the greatest battles in the race’s long history between the best four riders in the sport: Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel.

Dane Vingegaard won last year by more than seven minutes over his only real rival for victory, Pogacar of Slovenia.

But a harrowing crash while competing in April in northern Spain had put Vingegaard’s participation in serious doubt.

The 27-year-old is in Florence, Italy, for the Grand Depart, but has not raced since his accident.

After colliding with rocks at high speed, Vingegaard’s injuries from the crash at the Itzulia Basque country were significant – fractured ribs, a broken collarbone and a collapsed and bruised lung.

Injuries which required surgery and ones which could temporarily impact on a rider’s respiratory capabilities – even if someone with Vingegaard’s huge VO2 max, external would be expected to make a full recovery.

“It was probably the hardest moment in my career,” said Vingegaard on Thursday, playing down his chances. “I am looking for the best possible result in the GC, but it was a very bad crash, so just to be here is a victory in itself – everything from here is a bonus.”

Vingegaard wasn’t alone on the roadside in the Spain – Roglic, now of Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe and Belgium’s prodigious Evenepoel, of Soudal-Quick Step, were also injured.

“It caused me to take some steps back,” said former footballer Evenepoel, with half an eye on Belgium playing Ukraine during his press conference. “But I’ve tried my best in training to improve.”

The perceived wisdom was that an occasionally accident-prone Roglic and occasional steep climb-averse Evenepoel would normally be considered second favourites to the ‘big two’, but for Vingegaard’s injuries and Pogacar’s industry.

This year UAE-Team Emirates’ Pogacar, 25, wants to claim a third crown and make history by winning the Tour and Giro d’Italia in the same year.

Part one of that mission is already complete, winning the Italian Grand Tour by a staggering 10 minutes.

Problem is, he has started a Tour before, having thrilled everyone with his explosive riding earlier in the season, only to run out of steam when it really mattered in France. Last year, in fact, proclaiming “I’m gone; I’m dead”, on stage 17 in the Alps.

Plus, Pogacar this week said he was recovering from a recent Covid positive, which could be fine but of which any lasting effects is still something of a medical mystery.

Still, Evenepoel seems sure who is strongest: “Tadej is unreachable. He didn’t have to go deep [to win the Giro]. It did not tire him out.”

But that’s not to say Vingegaard has been written off. There is an expectation in the sport that retribution is due from UAE after last year, when Visma-Lease a Bike (then known as Jumbo-Visma) deliberately rode very aggressively early on to tire out Pogacar following his own early-season injury.

Now, the boot is on the other foot: and many expect UAE to ride ‘full gas’ from the first stage to break Vingegaard.

Evenepoel says his team will not follow suit: “Let them do what they want. I don’t think Jonas will crack in the first days.”

The circumstances around how this exciting potential four-way duel has come about is ironic at a time when cycling is under scrutiny for how many risks riders are expected to take to succeed on the road.

But it nevertheless leaves a crown-jewel sporting event very hard to call.

For Ineos Grenadiers – Britain’s once-dominant Tour-winning machine – to have perhaps the fifth, sixth and seventh best contenders for the yellow jersey is humbling.

The 2018 winner Geraint Thomas will likely contest his last Tour this year, expecting to “go for a stage if the chance arises”.

He is in fine form for 38 years old, but was one of those who finished 10 minutes behind Pogacar in May’s Giro.

The future for Ineos, at the moment, lies with Carlos Rodriguez of Spain – a 23-year-old who won a Tour stage convincingly last year, but does not yet appear ready to maintain a three-week challenge.

The 2019 winner Egan Bernal shares leader duties with Rodriguez, but is yet to return to the form which suggested he was destined for multiple Grand Tour victories before significant injuries from a crash in 2022.

So it is on the day in which Ineos shine brightest at the moment – Tom Pidcock could emulate his brilliant 2022 descending masterclass on his way to winning on Alpe d’Huez before he attempts to win two Olympic golds on the road and mountains. And he would “sacrifice the GC to race aggressively for a stage [win]”.

There are a record 11 British riders competing in this year’s Tour – a healthy legacy of days when Ineos’ Sky train dominated all before it under their previous guise.

Adam and Simon Yates could also star with single-stage wins – the twins are at the Tour with different teams and different roles.

Britain’s Fred Wright of Bahrain-Victorious will contest some of the fast-but-hilly stages alongside compatriots Stevie Williams and Jake Stewart of Israel Premier Tech – who could not find a place for four-time champion Chris Froome once again.

So how do you stay cool during the sport’s most intense three weeks? “Guys get wound up by the Tour soap opera, and what people say [about them],” says an ever-more calm and life-affirmed Thomas. “I say: ‘Don’t look at social media – read a book'. But they never listen.”