Chris Mason: Raab bullying inquiry nears judgement day

It is crunch time for Dominic Raab. Perhaps today. Perhaps tomorrow.

In the coming days, the deputy prime minister will discover his fate.

There are three possible eventualities: He is sacked. He resigns. He stays on.

All of this relates to allegations of bullying, which Mr Raab denies.

"If an allegation of bullying is upheld, I would resign," Mr Raab has said.

"The investigation should be completed as swiftly as possible," the terms of reference stated, almost 150 days ago.

This clearly hasn't proved straight forward, or, it would seem, particularly limited in its scope.

"The independent investigator will report to the prime minister on his investigation. As set out in the Ministerial Code, the prime minister is the ultimate judge of the standards of behaviour expected of a minister and the appropriate consequences of a breach of those standards. The report of the investigation will be made public."

So we know we will find out what is in Mr Tolley's report. And we know the final judgement call will be one for the prime minister.

Rishi Sunak has been prime minister for almost six months. This inquiry has been going on for almost five months.

In other words, the future of Mr Sunak's deputy, the man who loyally and publicly campaigned for him to be prime minister until the very point of his defeat by Liz Truss in last summer's leadership election, has hung over them both for almost as long as Mr Sunak has been in 10 Downing Street.

Speaking to senior folk in government privately, most assume that Mr Raab - who is also justice secretary - is "toast" as one figure put it to me.

"The breadth of this, the number of people complaining, surely he can't survive?" said another.

"He's got to be done for, so many people think he's a nightmare," one minister told me.

"How does he go home to his wife and kids when there have been so many headlines about him about this stuff?" another said. "To his credit, mind you, he manages to. He's been getting on with things."

Others are much, much more circumspect.

Few dispute he is quite the taskmaster to work for, but say that is a million miles from him being a bully. All this has already proved politically and financially costly to Mr Raab.

For months, questions about his conduct have followed his every public move.

He was taunted about it when he stood in for Rishi Sunak at Prime Minister's Questions recently, which must have been excruciating for him.

Some believe the report will be terrible for Mr Raab. One source suggested the process had taken so long because of the scale of claims made against him and Mr Tolley's desire to ensure the process is scrupulous.

So how might things pan out?

What happens if the prime minister concludes the report from Mr Tolley means Mr Raab can carry on?

Some will ask what all the fuss was about and wonder if some civil servants are insufficiently thick skinned to deal with a demanding boss.

Some of the complainants might feel a deep sense of injustice, and choose to speak out.

Those with deep knowledge of the government machinery wonder how the Ministry of Justice would be able to properly function, given the complaints from within that department about the secretary of state.

Bluntly, there are civil servants there who want him out. Mr Raab knows that. And yet he'd still be there. So would they resign?

What plans might the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case have to move people about in Whitehall to deal with this scenario?

And what happens if Mr Raab is sacked or resigns?

The question that will immediately be put to the prime minister is why did you appoint this loyal supporter in the first place?

Back in November, Mr Sunak repeatedly declined to tell me whether he had informal warnings about Mr Raab's behaviour before bringing him back into the cabinet.

In my interview, he said people with concerns should raise them.

Shortly afterwards, complaints were made and the independent investigation was set up.

The prime minister has never given a straight answer to that question of whether he had heard anything informally.

Equally, Westminster is a postcode full of rumour.

Those around Mr Sunak have long argued that means you have to have proper processes and not make knee-jerk judgements.

The other question that will be asked is why did it take so long to get to this point?

What needs to change about how Westminster works to prevent this happening again?

And the prime minister would have to find a new justice secretary, and decide whether he needs another deputy prime minister.

Whatever happens, it looks like an eventful few days ahead at Westminster.