Cost of living set to dominate future plans at Holyrood

Nicola Sturgeon is to set out the Scottish government's plans for the coming year, with action to tackle the cost of living crisis expected to be front and centre.

The first minister's annual "programme for government" announcement at Holyrood will coincide with a new prime minister being sworn in at Balmoral.

What Liz Truss decides to do will have a huge bearing on the response to rising prices and fuel bills in Scotland.

But what will Scottish ministers look to do within the powers available at Holyrood, and how difficult does the current crisis make it?

This is not going to be a normal programme for government.

Usually at this stage in a parliamentary term, the first minister would be setting out expansive plans for future reforms, with a wide-ranging slate of legislation delivering on manifesto pledges.

But this year, in the teeth of a growing cost of living crisis, we can expect a deliberate attempt to focus in on the immediate problems facing households and businesses.

A decision was taken at the most recent meeting of cabinet to slash the overall size of the programme, with the document apparently going from about 160 pages to closer to 40.

This is in part a move to underline how seriously and single-mindedly the government is taking the task of tackling rising costs and bills.

It is also a reflection of the fact that inflation is making it increasingly expensive for ministers to do things.

Ms Sturgeon has promised that her government's key focus in the coming year will be on battling what they have taken to calling the "cost crisis".

An emergency budget is expected in the coming weeks, once it becomes clear how Prime Minister Liz Truss intends to react.

Ms Sturgeon will lay a heavy emphasis on the powers that lie at Westminster, with calls for UK ministers to do more with "the levers" at their disposal to ease the burden on households and businesses.

But she will also outline what her own government can do, with a "raft of measures" to be announced using Holyrood's powers - which after all include a devolved social security system.

Front and centre will be an increase in the Scottish Child Payment to £25 per week, with eligibility to be expanded to a total of 400,000 under-16s.

There will be further announcements aimed at "bearing down on rising costs for people", as well as longer-term reforms to lift families out of poverty.

Given the SNP-Green administration has a majority, these plans would be guaranteed to sail over any parliamentary hurdles - while opposition leaders will need to win them over to their proposals.

A two-day debate will follow Ms Sturgeon's speech, providing ample time for other parties to put forward policies, like Labour's call for emergency legislation to help households.

Ms Sturgeon's speech on Tuesday will be closely linked to one the following day from John Swinney, her deputy who is currently standing in as finance secretary.

He will outline the latest on public sector pay talks as well as the outcome of an emergency review of the Scottish government's budget.

This has focused not just on where money might be shifted around to pay for extra support, but also on how the government's own accounts have been hit by inflation.

When prices go up, everything the government buys or pays for costs more. And sky-high inflation rates mean the budgetary figures worked out at the start of the year no longer make a huge amount of sense.

They have also prompted public sector pay increases far in excess of what ministers had originally budgeted for - and we may only have scratched the surface of disputes on that front across a range of different industries.

There is also acknowledgement within the Scottish government that things are changing quickly.

Ms Truss is expected to set out her own plans in the coming days, with the new prime minister promising to take action to deal with surging energy costs.

It is unclear how her proposals might affect Holyrood's spending power. Tax cuts could, in theory, provide a budget boost for Mr Swinney because of the labyrinthine way income tax devolution works.

However if they are paid for by cutting departmental budgets down south, that could have a negative impact on the block grant.

Equally if spending on devolved areas increases at Westminster, there would be "Barnett consequentials" for Holyrood to spend.

It is a very muddy, complicated picture, and Scottish ministers fear it may not resolve itself into hard figures for weeks or even months in terms of their own planning.

Ms Truss is perhaps more aware of this than most, however - in a previous role as Treasury secretary she gave evidence to MSPs in the Holyrood chamber about the operation of the parliament's fiscal framework.

As difficult as it may be to draw up plans in the current circumstances, it is what governments are for. To govern is to choose, and we do not elect leaders simply for the good times.

Ms Sturgeon has warned that there are tough choices ahead, and we already know many departments are facing real-terms cuts in the coming years amid a "reset" of public services.

However, we can expect progress on already-announced plans, like the Gender Recognition Bill - reforms centring on what has become a contentious subject, which ministers would thus like to push through parliament as quickly as possible.

Work will also continue on legislation to establish a National Care Service, another longer-term project which will require years of consultation and planning to bring to fruition.

Legislation will also be required at some point to set up a replacement for the Scottish Qualifications Agency, which is due to be scrapped as part of a shake-up of senior education.

At last year's local elections the SNP also pledged to scrap council tax for under-22s and to introduce a Local Democracy Bill to empower councillors and communities.

And there are commitments tied to the party's alliance with the Scottish Greens, who have now spent a year in government and will hope to have a growing influence on policy.

The partnership agreement between the parties also promised legislation on energy efficiency and zero-emissions heating, which would fall within Patrick Harvie's remit.

There were also pledges to introduce rent controls at some point in the parliamentary term, which may also have an impact on household budgets.

Finally the elephant in the room - independence, which is sure to feature in Ms Sturgeon's speech given she hopes to hold a referendum in October 2023.

The big plans have already been announced, with a draft bill drawn up and referred to the Supreme Court, so there is unlikely to be anything new in terms of strategy this week.

That legislation will only be introduced at Holyrood if judges decide MSPs have the power to actually make it law, and they will hear arguments about that in October.

However opposition leaders will doubtless point to it as evidence Ms Sturgeon is not wholly focused on cost of living - that her eye is off the ball.

And the first minister will doubtless respond in turn that Scotland needs independence to fully respond to these problems and indeed many others.

That is a debate has been running since long before the current crisis, and is likely to continue regardless of how it plays out.