Covid: Omicron hospital admissions could reach 1,000 a day - scientific advisers

Hospital admissions from the Omicron variant may reach at least 1,000 a day in England by the end of the year without extra restrictions being put in place, government advisers have said.

The numbers are contained in leaked minutes of a meeting of the government's scientific advisers held on Tuesday and seen by the BBC.

The overall scale of hospitalisations is still uncertain, they say.

But an urgent response is needed to reduce spread and pressure on the NHS.

There are currently around 680 people admitted to hospital each day with the delta variant in England (latest seven-day average). At the peak of the last winter wave of coronavirus hospitals in England were admitting 3,811 people a day infected with the virus.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies is made up of hundreds of scientists who offer advice to the government on how to react to the pandemic in the UK.

In the minutes of their latest meeting this week, seen by the BBC, they say: "With the speed of growth seen, decision makers will need to consider response measures urgently to reduce transmission if the aim is to reduce the likelihood of unsustainable pressure on the NHS."

The scientists say it is "highly likely" Omicron will account for the majority of new coronavirus infections in the UK within "a few weeks".

And they say the peak of the wave is "highly likely to be higher" than 1,000-2,000 Omicron hospital admissions per day without new rules to slow the spread of rising infections.

What's not yet clear is whether Omicron will replace infections from the older Delta variant or whether both variants will spread concurrently, at least in the short term.

Scientists say that will depend on the degree to which they infecting different groups or cohorts of people, which is not currently known.

The minutes go on to say: "Evidence suggests that measures could be reintroduced with expectation of a similar level of adherence as has been seen in the past. Adherence is likely to be higher if messaging and policy have clear rationales and are consistent."