Covid rise not driven by new variants - public health expert

Rising Covid infections in Scotland are not down to new variants, public health expert Jillian Evans has told the BBC.

Last week's ONS Covid infection survey estimated that about one in 45 people had the virus on any day in the previous week, this was up from one in 55 two weeks earlier.

However, Ms Evans, head of health intelligence at NHS Grampian, said this was not unexpected.

She said the numbers were in predicted levels for the autumn season.

The Covid expert said: "They are increasing but it's not a surprise to us. As autumn and winter kicks in, schools go back and we return to the workplace, it is quite likely we will see an increase.

"Are we in a new wave? Well, it's a bit early to tell that, but certainly infections are rising, and the ONS survey bears out.

"One in 45 are estimated to have the infection - that's 2.14% of the population and that's a lot of people."

She also added that more people - about a quarter - were catching the virus for a second or third time.

But she said: "What is interesting about the increase here is that it doesn't appear to be driven by new variants, although there are several new variants that are being closely monitored.

"That may happen but this seems to be what we predicted for the autumn season."

The Scottish government said this week that 1.3 million vaccines had already been delivered to protect against the latest strains of flu and Covid-19.

Front-line healthcare staff and the most vulnerable were called up first with 80.2% of all care home residents being fully vaccinated since the rollout began in September.

The next groups - over 65s and those at high-risk - are currently being sent scheduled appointments along with 50-64-year-olds.

Over 50s in England are now able to book their Covid booster and flu jabs and over-50s in Wales and Northern Ireland are already eligible for both jabs.

Ms Evans said taking up the offer of a jab was "massively" important.

"The great news is that of the cohorts vaccinated so far, uptake has been tremendous," she said.

"In the general population demand is there, and you will get those letters to book towards the end of this month.

"There has been high uptake of those who have been invited so far, let's hope that continues."

The Covid-19 vaccine is being given at the same time as the flu jab where possible, and so far 94% of those invited have had both at the same appointment.

More than two million Scots will be offered both vaccines over the next three months.

Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: "Scotland remains steadfast in the effort to protect everyone - continuing the huge success of the vaccination programme since it was first rolled out in December 2020.

"Covid-19 has not gone away and I call on everyone to take up the offer of a booster as soon as their invitation arrives to protect themselves, their families and the NHS."

Data from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) showed that Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate of 161 people who died in September compared with 213 in August.

Those living in the most deprived areas were most at risk.

Throughout the pandemic, the highest rate of Covid-related deaths was in April 2020 when 2,413 people died.