General election: Why the battle for votes in Scotland is key

Politics has been a bit of a rollercoaster over the past decade. Nowhere is that more true than in Scotland.

At the 2019 general election, Labour won just one constituency, finishing fourth behind the SNP, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

This time, senior figures in the party think they could finish first. They've identified 28 Scottish seats as 'in play' - ones they think they could win.

If they succeed, it would be the most remarkable turnaround and could be an important factor in deciding whether Labour wins power at Westminster.

If you don't follow Scottish politics, here's a quick crash course: Labour was nearly wiped out in Scotland at the UK general election in 2015.

The party's vote had been falling, but the Scottish independence referendum made it much worse.

A lot of traditional Labour voters backed independence but the party did not and so some decided to vote SNP.

Labour went from having 41 Scottish seats to just one. The SNP went from having six MPs to 56.

Speaking to me for a new BBC Radio 4 documentary, Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar admits the party became complacent.

He admits there was an air of Labour feeling "untouchable". It wasn't.

She told the programme: "It definitely made it undeniable that something in Scotland had shifted and it had shifted dramatically."

It's hard to exaggerate how bad the situation was for Labour in Scotland. At times, some questioned the party's very existence; squeezed electorally between the pro-independence SNP and the pro-union Conservatives.

So how did they get from that, to now?

The Rutherglen by-election in October 2023 was seen as a big test of whether Labour's hopes of a revival were realistic. Labour won comfortably - and since then, senior figures have become more confident.

Labour thinks 28 of Scotland's 57 seats are in play.

The party plans to dedicate significant funding to seats in Glasgow, chunks of Lanarkshire, several towns in Scotland's central belt, parts of the east coast around Edinburgh, the Western Isles and more.

When I spoke to Mr Sarwar for the programme, he was sitting in front of a map of constituencies in Scotland's central belt. Twenty five of them had been highlighted bright red. They looked suspiciously like target seats.

He said: "If you look at where we are in the polls right now, it would suggest we are competitive in that range of seats."

What's interesting though, is that Labour's strategy on the independence question hasn't really changed. In 2015, it urged voters to focus on other issues. Voters ignored that plea. But this year, Labour believes it could be working.

In fact, it seems fair to suggest the big changes in Labour's fortunes aren't really about Labour. They're more to do with the SNP and the Conservatives.

The last few months have been a nightmare for the SNP. After Nicola Sturgeon resigned, there was a bruising leadership election. Ms Sturgeon was arrested in a probe over funding (then released without charge).

The party's new leader, Humza Yousaf, has proved a lot less popular with the public. The SNP have suffered in the polls - and some of the decisions the party has taken in power at Holyrood have been criticised.

Then there's the picture at Westminster.

Polls suggest a Labour government is a realistic prospect. So, the argument goes, voting Labour becomes a more attractive prospect for Scottish voters who want to see change.

Ruth Davidson used to lead the Conservatives in Scotland. She told the BBC: "In Scotland, as well as in the rest of the United Kingdom, there are continuity elections and there are change elections. And this feels like a change election in both."

Finally, there's independence.

Support for leaving the UK hasn't fallen. But what has changed is there's no obvious way for the SNP to deliver a second referendum soon. The courts have ruled Scotland can't hold a referendum without Westminster's agreement - and both the Conservatives and Labour say that won't happen. So, Labour argues, it becomes less pressing for voters.

This isn't just about Scotland. It's about who runs the UK after the general election.

The SNP says more of its MPs are needed to force Labour into more radical policies on issues like the cost of living.

If no party has a majority in the next parliament. would SNP MPs vote for Labour's policy programme to keep them in power?

Scotland's First Minister Mr Yousaf wouldn't make that firm commitment in his interview. He told me he didn't want to negotiate through the BBC. But the SNP would want concessions to prop up a Labour government. Prominent figures like Mhairi Black say allowing another independence vote in Scotland should be a "red line".

Ms Black is standing down at the election. She admits the SNP is facing challenges, but insists it's all to play for.

Mr Alexander, the Labour big beast she beat, is hoping to return as an MP, standing for Labour in a different seat in the east of Scotland.

He says a "permafrost" that's "held Scottish politics frozen for the last decade… is finally beginning to melt".

The people of Scotland will make that decision within the year.