How far are Scotland from Euro 2024?

Scotland are currently top of their Euro 2024 qualifying group after a memorable win over Spain last time out

Look at us. Who would've thought it? Just two games into Scotland's Euro 2024 qualifying campaign and already we're looking for the cheapest hostels in Germany.

By the time we go to bed on Tuesday, Steve Clarke and his side could be two gigantic steps closer to a second major finals in three attempts.

But, as we all know fine well from previous experience, there's also a distinct possibility that all the good work of the opening two wins against Cyprus and Spain back in March could be undone with a bit of a reality check.

With another double-header against Norway and Georgia on the way, BBC Scotland examines just how close Clarke's men are to reaching a successive European Championship.

Data in Scotland's favour... for now

Positive vibes only. According to our mates at Nielsen's Gracenote, Scotland have a 73% chance of qualifying directly from their group for Euro 2024.

Cigars out and feet up? Not quite. There are still six games to go. Despite currently sitting first of Group A, the data specialists believe Clarke's side have a 35.2% probability of finishing the campaign there, with top seeds Spain rated (54.7%) most likely to end in that spot.

Fortunately, the top two progress to the Euros. But, even if Scotland don't manage that, they still have the safety net of the play-offs after winning their Nations League section last year.

Taking that into account, Gracenote believe there's an 82.9% chance overall that the Tartan Army are going to be firing washing-up liquid into various German water fountains next summer.

Time to get carried away yet?

Why avoiding defeat in Oslo is massive

After March's memorable win over Spain, which followed an opening victory against Cyprus, skipper Andy Robertson restored calm. "Six points doesn't qualify you," he warned us.

A perfectly valid point. But if Scotland were to replicate that points return during this camp, they will be in a very, very strong position.

Of course, that's not an easy task. First up is a trip to Norway, who find themselves three places and five points behind Clarke's men. They apparently have a big lad up front who leathers in goals for a laugh. Erling Haaland. Anyone heard of him? Didn't think so.

Despite being fourth, sandwiched between Georgia and bottom-side Cyprus, it's fair to assume that the Norwegians - the group's third-seeded nation - are still Scotland's biggest threat for a top-two finish. That's assuming Spain also progress.

But another seismic win for Clarke's side in Oslo would ensure Norway are unable to finish on more than 16 points. Go and then beat Georgia and Scotland would already be on 12 by the half-way point.

Even a draw on Saturday would mean Norway's final tally couldn't be higher than 17. Three wins in their final five qualifiers would then be enough for Scotland to ensure they are guaranteed to finish above Stale Solbakken's men.

With three games against the group's bottom-two seeds - Georgia (aye, we know...) and Cyprus - to come, you would surely back Clarke and his side to finish the job.

We're not telling you to check the expiry dates on your passports if Scotland avoid defeat on Saturday. We're not that daft.

But if they do, they will put themselves in an unbelievable spot - one that would take an almighty collapse to mess up, even by Scottish standards.

"Scotland should be going to Oslo believing they can win," former Scotland striker Kenny Miller said on the Scottish Football Podcast.

"They'll be confident, but expecting to win any away game is dangerous. A draw would be a solid point. Then Georgia is a home game you can go and win to put yourself in a wonderful position. Forget the play-offs, we can get there automatically."

Glass-half-empty time...

Let's have it right. It's not out of the equation that we could all come crashing back down to earth on Saturday night, given a Norway win would put them just two points behind Scotland. Don't come back here and blame us for getting your hopes up if that happens.

In Manchester City's Haaland, Scotland's defence are going to have to deal with arguably the world's best player to have any chance of victory. Throw Arsenal's Martin Odegaard into the mix and we're talking about two of the Premier League's top talents over the last season.

If John McGinn hasn't text his good pal, and former Aston Villa team-mate, Jack Grealish to try coax Haaland into continuing City's treble-winning party over the next few days, we should all be disappointed. We've got faith in you, John.

Sadly, there's nothing to suggest the 22-year-old won't be ready and raring to add to his monster goal tally. He's also yet to play at a major finals for his country, so you can bet he will be desperate to turn around a disappointing start to Norway's campaign.

It would also be daft for anyone with a Scotland persuasion to underestimate Georgia, who are on a remarkable run of just one defeat in their last 14 games.

Yes, they are 41 Fifa rankings below Clarke's side, but we all know too well the damage they have done to previous qualifying campaigns. Defeats in Tbilisi in both 2007 and 2015 proved fatal in Scotland's efforts to qualify for the 2008 and 2016 Euros.

This current Georgia squad also have a superstar of their own in the form of Napoli's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who scored 14 goals and provided 17 assists throughout the 2022-23 season for the Serie A champions.

"As a player and a coach, I found games like ones against Georgia more difficult," former Scotland midfielder and assistant manager Peter Grant added on the Scottish Football Podcast.

"They games were always concerns against the teams that don't have the so-called superstars. Scotland always have a habit of tripping themselves up in those."

We remember them too well, Peter. If we could make life a bit easier this time, that would be lovely. But we all know that might be asking too much.