In five charts - How UAE's exit could affect Opec's influence over the oil price

The United Arab Emirates' plan to ditch the oil producers' group Opec and strike out alone is being viewed as a huge blow for the oil producers' group, with one analyst describing it as "the beginning of the end of Opec".

It comes at a time of significant volatility in the oil market, with the US-Israel war with Iran triggering the biggest loss of oil supply on record, according to the World Bank.

Here, in five charts, we explain how Opec influences oil prices and what the UAE's departure could mean.

1. What is Opec and who is in it?

Opec was formed in 1960 by five countries - Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela - to defend the interests of major oil exporters by coordinating production to ensure steady revenue for its members.

The number of members has fluctuated over the years. In addition to its founders it includes Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and the Republic of the Congo.

In 2016, when oil prices were particularly low, Opec joined forces with 10 other oil producers, including Russia, to create the wider Opec+ alliance.

Opec aims to influence the global price of oil by agreeing how much its oil members sell. When they agree to sell more it is in an attempt to help lower prices by making sure supply is plentiful, and when they reduce supply, their aim is to keep prices high when demand is lower.

Oil prices more than doubled, there was fuel rationing, and the significant knock-on effects were compounded by a second oil shock in 1979 with the Iranian Revolution.

More recently, when the price of crude oil crashed due to a lack of buyers during the coronavirus pandemic, Opec+ slashed production to boost prices.

Its response to soaring oil prices after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 was more muted - it pledged to raise production slightly, before slashing it later that year.

Critics, including US President Donald Trump, argue it has used its influence to keep prices higher than they otherwise might have been by limiting supplies.

Over the past few decades Opec's influence on oil prices has "varied", says Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot.

A historic difficulty in Opec being effective in influencing the oil price is because when it has made a decision individual members "often do not actually respect the commitment" - either producing more because they want a greater market share, or less due to technical difficulties.

He says this has been "widespread" - mentioning instances of Kazakhstan and UAE increasing production to more than what was agreed.

3. UAE is one of Opec's top oil exporters

The UAE was the world's third biggest oil exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025, according to the latest Opec data.

This doesn't take into account current global events which have had a significant impact on oil exports, sending the price of crude rocketing.

The Strait of Hormuz - a vital artery through which about a fifth of oil and liquified natural gas usually travels - has been effectively closed for eight weeks.

While the waterway remains blocked, Carulli says losing UAE from Opec will have "zero" short-term impact on exports.

4. How much oil does the UAE produce?

The UAE is Opec's fourth biggest oil producer.

According to the Opec data, the UAE produced 3.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2025. Saudi Arabia, Opec's de facto leader, produced over nine million barrels per day.

Once out of the group, experts suggest the UAE could increase production by around one million barrels daily.

5. Opec's changing influence

Opec is less important to world oil markets than it was in the 1970s, as it now holds a smaller share of internationally traded oil. Oil is also less important to the world's economy.

As of 2025 Opec produced 36.7% of global crude oil - down from over half (52.5%) in 1973, according to its figures.

Non-Opec countries, such as the US, Canada and Brazil have taken some of its diminished share, says Quilter Cheviot's Carulli.

Globally, the US is the main oil producing nation - and has been since 2018 - producing 13.6 million barrels a day. last year. Russia - member of Opec+, is also a key player - in 2025 it was the second largest producer of crude at 9.1 million barrels a day.

Carulli says influence over the oil price has "shifted" to the US in recent weeks because Gulf members of Opec are unable to export oil they produce while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of the Swiss private bank Syz Group, says UAE's departure is the "end of Opec as we knew it".

The cartel has survived global events such as Iran-Iraq war and Venezuela's collapse, he says, but "what it has never really survived is the loss of a founding-era major producer".

"Opec will continue, but with materially less ability to set prices," he adds.

Charts by Chris Clayton. Additional reporting by Jonathan Josephs.