Local elections 2023: Conservatives hope to retain red wall gains

In the centre of Clay Cross are two old colliery winding wheels. For years, they used to help raise coal from the pits below, but now they are wedged deep into the ground - a memorial to the Derbyshire miners who lost their lives underground.

This one-time Labour fortress five miles south of Chesterfield was the birthplace of veteran MP Dennis Skinner, who held his nearby Bolsover seat for almost 40 years. It was also the site of a council-led rebellion against Conservative government rent rises in the early 1970s.

"It was called the People's Republic of Clay Cross," remembers Andrew Bradley, carefully drawing a line of paint across his canvas. "It's always been a Labour area. And I think everyone always assumed it was going to continue to be."

Andrew runs an art class at a community hall in the town which has seen a dramatic shift in its politics in recent years, with votes turning from red to blue.

North East Derbyshire voted strongly for Brexit. In 2017, the constituency elected its first Conservative MP since 1935, and in 2019 the Tories took control of the council - proof that the loyalty of voters in Labour's traditional heartlands, sometimes called the "red wall", was crumbling.

Four years on, these local elections are a crucial test for the Conservatives. They hold by far the biggest number of seats up for election this time on North East Derbyshire District Council, so have the most to defend and much to lose.

After the ousting of Boris Johnson from his role as prime minister, the fleeting turmoil of his successor Liz Truss, and the arrival of her replacement Rishi Sunak, the outcomes here will give us a sense of where the party stands.

The Conservatives expect to be clobbered when voters go to the polls on 4 May and the party's new chairman Greg Hands has talked openly about losing some 1,000 councillors across England.

It's not unusual for parties to talk up the scale of potential election losses so they can later claim the results are not bad as they feared, but the Tories are battling opposition parties who sense the national mood has turned.

Local factors will shape the political choices people make next week in Clay Cross, as they will in contests across England. But these elections will also reflect how people feel about the country.

Andrew Bradley says the most important issues for him are education and making sure people can see their GP.

Fellow painter Rachel Snowball, sitting at a nearby table, worries about the state of the NHS.

"It seems to me [the NHS] and the infrastructure of the country is on its knees. And that's sad. Because without these essential services, how do communities pull together?"

What does she make of Rishi Sunak's first six months in the job?

"He seems to be a grown-up. And the government seems to be more settled than it has done for a while. Whether Labour could do a different job? I don't know. They'll tell you they can. Everybody tells you they can."

These local elections are clearly a big test for the new prime minister and the first chance for voters to pass their verdict. Although if the outcome is as bad for the Conservatives as the party expects, the weekend of festivities for the King's coronation between the 6 and 8 May - right after local election results - might knock them out of the headlines pretty swiftly.

At the Cup and Saucer tea shop, a couple of minute's drive from the community hall, the bunting is up, the royal crockery is ready and a special coronation brew has been prepared. But the shop's owner Gail Hannon says business is tough.

"Every single day independent businesses are having to shut down. The cost of living is having a knock-on effect on everything."

Gail's friend and fellow business owner Karen Tait agrees. She is worried about her wage bill.

"It's just difficult, life is difficult. And there's nothing we can do about that. Making sure my girls are getting paid, making sure that I've got food for families. That's the main priority to me."

The government has said it wants to halve inflation this year and get the economy growing, which it hopes will slow the rising price of food in the shops, currently at a 45-year high.

Without an economic recovery, a political revival for the Tories could be impossible. But the prime minister has also promised to stop small boats crossing the England Channel, which the party believes is an issue voters care about.

Landlocked Derbyshire is some distance from the south coast but in the picturesque town of Dronfield, about three miles from the Peak District, it was something that prompted strong views.

"I think they [the government] are very wishy-washy about it," says Nick Simpler, a community volunteer. "I don't think there's anyone taking complete control of it. It's just vague promises we keep getting about immigration.

"I think it's important because I'm not sure how many people we can house in this island."

Another of Dronfield's community volunteers, Jill Bethell, says she understands why migrants want to come to the UK.

"My heart bleeds for those people who are trying to come here for a good future. And I feel that they need to be helped and supported... We can't be overrun by it, but we can be kind."

On Dronfield's playing fields, people wonder whether the Conservatives can hold on to their "red wall" breakthrough of recent years.

"I think the Conservatives could take a big hit. Whether it's a big enough hit, so that Labour will take over, I'm not sure," said Andy Evers.

He said Mr Sunak was "doing well", compared with his predecessors at Number 10, adding: "I think he's inherited a mess but he's coming in and seemingly doing alright."

Peter Gray agreed: "I don't think the Conservatives are by any means out of the running at this stage."

The results in areas like this will be pored over for signs of Labour recovery and Conservative resilience. With no elections in Wales or Scotland next week, and some big English cities like London and Birmingham not holding elections this year, the results will give only a partial picture of the national mood.

A poor result for the Conservatives would confirm their standing in the opinion polls, where they currently trail Labour by about 15%.

But while grim results for the Tories in the 2019 local elections piled pressure on then-Prime Minister Theresa May to quit, there's no sense the party wants to have another divisive leadership election.

With a general election looming, Tory MPs are resigned to a difficult night locally, but will be searching for flickers of hope.

This is the latest in a series of articles looking at the local elections. You can read analysis pieces on the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Labour here.

All images by Jack Slater unless otherwise credited