NI politics: Is another Stormont election a certainty?

Ask any politician to name a word they hate and chances are it begins with U.

It has been used countless times since Liz Truss did her screeching U-turn on tax rates, tainting her first Conservative conference as prime minister this week.

But could her Northern Ireland secretary soon do a U-turn of his own?

The law states the poll must happen within a subsequent 12-week period after 28 October, the current deadline.

In theory if the impasse continued, Mr Heaton-Harris could be pushing a winter election on the parties and the public.

But few politicians and political hacks are yet to be convinced by his threat.

They point to the precedent set by recent Tory administrations to legislate and delay the requirement for an election, a move that happened a number of times during the last Stormont stalemate between 2017 and 2020.

But might the Truss government try a different tack this time?

In private, the consensus still largely appears that the government has been keeping up appearances but will ultimately step in to ensure another election doesn't have to take place immediately.

One Stormont source told me they were "97 percent sure" the secretary of state would shift stance at the last second.

The three percent left unsure, they said, was because there has been none of the usual backroom conversations and diplomatic window dressing that tends to happen between governments, parties and officials before such an announcement might be made.

So, with 21 days to go until the deadline, what might happen?

Not impossible but a lot of parts would need to fall into place quickly for this to happen.

That starts with the dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

That is part of the UK's Brexit deal with the EU and ensures free trade can continue across the Irish land border.

It has been met with protests by unionist politicians for the resulting checks it has placed on some goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

While there has clearly been a shift in tone and language by the UK government and the EU in hopes of finding consensus, there is no a sign a breakthrough is imminent.

Technical talks have started although indications are things could take months, not weeks.

On Thursday, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said he envisaged the issues would not be quickly resolved.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has also maintained that it would not return to power-sharing unless any deal on the protocol meets its demands.

It wants checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland to be significantly reduced and has insisted Northern Ireland's place within the UK internal market must be "fully restored".

Other parties at Stormont have attacked the DUP's stance to block the formation of a new executive and assembly, suggesting Northern Ireland is being used as "leverage" in the protocol dispute.

The odds appear stacked against a resolution being in place by 28 October.

It would require the government to take new legislation through Parliament.

While passing legislation is usually a long process, the government has wiggle room and could pass a bill to delay the current timetable in a matter of days, if it wanted to.

What is not clear is how long the government could push things back by, if indeed it decided to intervene in this way.

Would Stormont's caretaker ministers - who cannot meet as part of the decision-making executive without a first and deputy first minister - find themselves remaining in office as well?

Under the current rules, they will cease to be in post by the end of the month and would leave Stormont departments with civil servants keeping things ticking over.

Delaying that into the new year still seems like the most probable option.

In that circumstance, it is likely that the government would also have to pass a budget for Stormont this autumn to deal with building financial pressures.

Mr Heaton-Harris may well say: "Don't say I didn't warn you" to the parties come 28 October, if he follows through.

But it would still be a divisive move.

The last election took place in May and resulted in Sinn Féin returning as the largest party for the first time, on 27 of Stormont's 90 assembly seats.

The DUP came in second place with 25 seats, the Alliance Party won 17, the UUP sits at nine and the SDLP has eight seats.

The TUV, People Before Profit and two independent MLAs round out the remaining seats.

On Tuesday, Sinn Féin said it would "not be helpful" to hold another election and would disrespect the electorate which cast its verdict just six months ago.

The DUP, while it has not been vocal in calling for an election, does not believe it would suffer huge losses.

Other parties have said a poll would not change anything and could instead lead to a nasty, rehashed campaign in the run-up to Christmas.

Calling an election right away would be tantamount to pressing the nuclear button.

In three weeks, we'll know which scenario has come to pass and the consequences that will have.