OBR: What is it and when will its forecast be published?

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PM Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer KwartengImage source, Reuters

Official UK economic forecasts will be published on 31 October, the government has announced.

Carried out by Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the forecasts will assess the impact of last month's mini-budget.

What is the OBR?

The OBR is an independent body that examines the decisions taken in government Budgets.

This includes setting out economic forecasts - calculations of the most likely thing that will happen in the future, given all the facts available.

But OBR forecasts were not published alongside the mini-budget on 23 September, despite the government being under pressure to provide an independent financial assessment.

Financial markets reacted badly to the mini-budget plan to cut taxes by £43bn - the value of the pound fell and the cost of government borrowing went up.

Critics - including Parliament's Treasury Select Committee - suggested the lack of forecasts had contributed to this reaction, and called for them to be published.

Why were forecasts not published alongside the mini-budget?

The OBR normally publishes its own forecasts alongside government Budgets.

It had offered to prepare a draft forecast in time for the mini-budget, but the government did not take it up.

The Treasury defended the controversy. It said it had acted at "immense speed" to offer support for households. It added it remained committed to the OBR publishing official forecasts twice a year.

Instead, in the aftermath of the mini-budget, the government asked the OBR to produce a forecast for 23 November.

The forecasts will now be brought forward and published on 31 October - alongside the government's plan to pay for the measures and reduce debt.

The new date means the government's debt plan, along with the OBR forecasts, will be published before the Bank of England announces its next interest rate decision in early November.

Bringing forward the OBR report could result in a smaller interest rates rise, if markets react positively, says Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury Select Committee.

What is the OBR and why does it matter?

The OBR was created in 2010 to provide an independent analysis of the government's financial decisions.

It usually produces economic forecasts twice a year, to accompany each autumn Budget and spring statement. These are the events where the government outlines its main tax and spending policies.

The OBR's forecasts sets out the cost and impact of new policies, how much tax will be raised and what it means for borrowing and growth.

These forecasts are important because a strong one gives investors confidence to put money into the UK economy - whereas a weak one is likely to have the opposite effect.

The government can request forecasts from the OBR at any time to get independent advice on big policy announcements.

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