Rutherglen: Labour eye Scottish breakthrough in key by-election

Labour present a challenge to the SNP in Scotland, the party's leader has admitted in the week before a key by-election in Rutherglen.

First Minister Humza Yousaf told the BBC he is "not complacent about that challenge".

Labour insiders are confident they are on the verge of a breakthrough in Scotland.

Sir Keir Starmer has said he wants to win a significant number of seats in Scotland to ensure he has a "mandate".

Asked if the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election was a must-win for his party, he said: "It is very important for us. There is no getting away from that."

Voters in the seat go to the polls on Thursday, 5 October. The by-election - which was triggered when ex-SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was removed by her constituents after breaking Covid lockdown rules - is being seen as a key test of whether Labour are making a comeback in Scotland, as polls suggest.

Senior figures in the party are confident of victory. One source close to the campaign said a comfortable win in Rutherglen would suggest the party could compete for as many as 24 seats in Scotland at a general election.

That is a remarkable claim given the party has just one MP in Scotland at the moment.

SNP insiders believe turnout will be crucial - but they also acknowledge the party has been hit by the police investigation into SNP funding. It saw former leader Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell arrested, then released without charge.

The first minister said: "Labour are popping the Champagne corks - putting up the bunting, they are complacent."

He added: "We've been in government for 16 years. Of course there's challenges.

"But 16 years in, with probably the most difficult six months my party has faced, we're still leading in the [national] polls."

Labour went into freefall after the independence referendum in 2014. The following year, it lost 40 seats in Scotland and returned just one MP.

But Labour is now confident of winning a seat from the SNP at a by-election for the first time. And they think it could be the start of a resurgence in Scotland.

Sir Keir said: "For the Labour Party it matters that we win in Scotland to have the mandate - to have the authority - to take the whole of the UK forward."

He added: "I don't want to win a general election without winning more significantly in Scotland."

He would not put a number on what "significant" looked like.

But for a while, Labour strategists have thought it's possible the party could return 20 or more MPs in Scotland at the next general election.

A source close to the by-election campaign said: "We're in a good place." They suggested their vote was hardening up in the final days of the campaign.

Tactical voting could play a role in the by-election too.

Senior SNP figures think many anti-independence voters who don't necessarily support Labour will give them their vote.

Asked about tactical voting, the Scottish Tory deputy leader Meghan Gallacher said: "We'll always say to vote Conservative. We've got a really, strong message… we're saying no to the SNP's independence plans but we're also talking about other issues which really matter to the people here in Rutherglen, cost of living being one of them."

The Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole Hamilton said: "Liberal Democrats are growing again and my defining mission as leader is to give them a reason to vote for us".

The Scottish Greens are in government with the SNP at Holyrood - but the party is standing a candidate at the by-election. The party's co-leader Patrick Harvie said: "Green and SNP voters don't necessarily see eye to eye on things like how regulate the oil and gas industry, how fast we can move in that transition in response to the climate emergency."