Scots taste bitter reality after Ireland beat Boks

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As the final whistle sounded in Paris on Saturday night, the fatalism hit Nice like a wildfire. In our corner of the Cote d'Azur, where masses of Scotland fans gathered for Sunday's game against Tonga, gallows humour did the rounds.

In the wake of Ireland's 16th straight victory - a beating of the Springboks in a game of extraordinary intensity - everybody in blue was doing the sums. Not that the sums were all that complicated all of a sudden.

The group of near-certain death is living up to its billing for Scotland - or as one punter put it: "We got a turkey of a pool and now the chickens are coming home to roost."

Gregor Townsend's team have to beat Tonga in Nice on Sunday with a bonus point - they surely will - and have to beat Romania in Lille next weekend with another bonus point - they definitely will.

That will take them to 10 points. Ireland are already on 14. The Springboks will finish on 15. The bottom line here is that Scotland will have to beat Ireland at the Stade de France in the final group game while denying them a bonus point.

If the Scots finish level on 14 points with Andy Farrell's winning machine, they go through on the head-to-head. The chances of that happening? An unscientific poll in Antibes on Saturday evening would suggest that there is not a lot of hope out there.

This is the greatest Irish side there has ever been, a team on the longest winning run in the nation's history and a group of players who do not really remember and could not care less about the dog days of past World Cup failures.

That was not their history. Their history is going to New Zealand and winning a Test series there for the first time. Their history is beating France in the 2023 Six Nations despite losing player after player to injury.

Their history is losing two hookers to injury at Murrayfield and having a prop at hooker and an openside flanker throwing into the lineout and still winning. Their history is taking the Grand Slam at Twickenham and now their history is going toe-to-toe with the world champions and beating them too.

Against the Boks, Ireland lost six lineouts and still found a way to win. They listened to all the talk about the South African Bomb Squad (six forwards on the bench) - and the Bomb Squad Max (seven forwards on the bench) and beat them regardless.

They did not swoon at the thought of the South African heavies coming on to the field. If they had any sense, the Springbok fans would decommission the Bomb Squad phrase now.

South Africa remain an outstanding rugby team and a serious contender to win the World Cup, but Rassie Erasmus and his coaching chums went all-in on the power game against Ireland thinking that the lack of a world class goal-kicker would not hurt them in Paris. It did.

Erasmus had a bad night. As well as his coaching traffic lights, he should have brought a set of flashing hazard lights with him to the coaches box. Or an emergency siren.

Ireland's ability to problem-solve mid-game is incredible. To lose your first four lineouts against the Boks - Scotland lost five in the entire game in Marseille - might have broken lesser teams.

They were under monumental pressure on their own and they fought like dogs to get out of there. It was a rugby war, a battle of attrition. And it was impossible to take your eyes off it.

The Scotland boys would have been watching it unfold from their hotel in Nice. Not a lot of what happened in Paris would have surprised any of them. Many of these players - and coaches - were involved in the now eight-match losing run against Ireland.

In the most recent contest, at Murrayfield in the Six Nations, Scotland played wonderfully well for 40 minutes only to lose 22-7. Before that, it was 26-5, 27-24, 31-16, 19-12, 27-3, 22-13 and 28-8.

The pessimism among the Scotland fans - "one game played and we're already out" was the plaintive cry - was based on bitter reality. Scotland have to beat Ireland but haven't done so since 2017.

The cumulative score in the last eight games is 202-88. Ireland's average winning margin in this run is 14. They have scored 24 tries to Scotland's eight.

Ireland now have a two-week break to recover from the exhaustion of Saturday night. Everything is in their favour.

They will want to beat Scotland to guarantee top spot in the group, so if Farrell decides to tinker with his squad, he will do it in the knowledge winning the group means a quarter-final against the All Blacks - Ireland have a brilliant record against them - and finishing second means a quarter-final against France. Even without Antoine Dupont, that is a prospect they would rather avoid for now.

It is beyond ludicrous that Scotland are already jammed in behind the eight-ball after one loss to the world champions, but that is the truth of it. They have to get those 10 points against Tonga and Romania to give themselves a shot at stopping a seemingly unstoppable machine.

In this winning sequence, Ireland have beaten New Zealand twice, South Africa twice, France, Scotland and the rest. They do not have a Bomb Squad or a war dance. They just have players who are as tough mentally as they are physically. They are now favourites to win the World Cup.

Outside of their own bubble, nobody will think that Scotland, as good as they can be, will be the team to derail the Irish. But they will have a crack at them. They will ask questions. If the stars are aligned and all that.

In the meantime, Townsend's players need to forget about what might happen in Paris and focus on Nice and Lille and Tonga and Romania. They need to arrive in Paris feeling good about themselves. That is all you can ask for now.

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