Shock Le Pen verdict rocks French far right

"Incredible." That was the single word uttered under her breath by Marine Le Pen as she stormed out of a Paris courtroom this morning.

She left the court early – just before hearing that she was barred from running for office for five years after being found guilty of embezzlement of EU funds – almost certainly ruling her out from standing in the 2027 French presidential election.

Without even waiting for the judge to pronounce the full details of the sentence, the head of the National Rally knew that her political goose was cooked.

There would be no reprieve pending appeal. The bar on running for office was real and immediate.

A four-year prison sentence, of which two will be suspended, will be on hold pending appeal.

But her political plans are dead.

Le Pen's incredulity can be better excused, perhaps, in the context of the moment.

A consensus had almost established itself across France's political world that this ultimate sanction by the court could not, would not – in the end – take place.

It was not just Le Pen's followers who said it. Her enemies agreed, from Jean-Luc Melenchon on the far left to Prime Minister François Bayrou in the centre and Justice Minister Gérard Darmanin on the right.

All said that Marine Le Pen was too important a figure to be removed from the political scene at the stroke of a judge's pen.

All sought justification from legal argument. There was no requirement for the judge, Bénédicte de Perthuis, to order immediate ineligibility from running for office. The judge had latitude. Ms de Perthuis would take account of the national context, they thought, and the affront done to democracy if a front-runner for the 2027 presidential election were to be disbarred from the race.

But they were all wrong. The judge said that the law was the law.

The law had in fact recently been toughened – by the very politicians who were now complaining about its application – to make the penalty for misuse of public funds very severe indeed. Well, said the judge in so many words, now let politicians suck up their own medicine.

Maybe Marine Le Pen was naïve in not predicting this outcome. It certainly appears as if her National Rally party was singularly unprepared for it.

So as they meet in an emergency session after the verdict, party leaders are in a dilemma.

Do they continue as if there is still a chance Marine Le Pen will run in 2027?

In theory there is still a (small) possibility. She has already launched an appeal. The appeal could be accelerated and take place at the end of this year or early 2026. A verdict would follow in the spring.

The appeal hearing could result in a shorter period of ineligibility, or remove it altogether – in which case she could still run. But the chances must be regarded as slim.

Or, should they proceed with plan B – that is to say, with naming 29-year-old party president Jordan Bardella as de facto the man who will run in Marine Le Pen's place?

That might be a more realistic assessment of what lies ahead. But to turn to Bardella too quickly would be unseemly. And anyway, not everyone in the party is a fan.

Behind Marine Le Pen, everyone could unite. Behind Bardella, not so much.

On this, and on so many other questions, the fall-out of the political earthquake is unclear.

What, for example, will the effect be on the RN vote?

In the short term we can expect an outcry, and a boost to the party's support. Why? Because what has happened fits so neatly into the RN narrative that the populist right is a victim of the "system".

No-one likely to vote for the RN seriously holds it against Marine Le Pen for illegally financing her party using EU parliament funds. They all know that every French political party has resorted to similar underhand methods in the past.

By the same token, her "draconian" punishment – being banned from standing for the presidency – will be interpreted as a badge of honour: proof that she alone is standing up to the powers-that-be.

Longer term, though, the boost may not be so powerful. The truth is that Marine Le Pen is a huge asset to the RN. This battle-hardened, sentimental, cat-loving, tough-talking, long-suffering woman is held in huge affection by her supporters, who feel they know her personally.

Jordan Bardella is a popular figure too, but at his age it is hard to see him filling her shoes. With Marine Le Pen out of the picture, the RN loses much of its appeal.

What is certain is that many would-be candidates on the French right wing – like former interior minister Bruno Retailleau – would see in a Bardella candidacy a huge opportunity for themselves.

The other unknown is vengeance.

Marine Le Pen remains a member of the National Assembly, where she leads a bloc of 125 – the parliament's biggest. Till now she had not used that sizeable bloc to attempt to bring down the government of the beleaguered prime minister Francois Bayrou, who struggles on despite having no majority.

Those days may be over.

Why should we do anyone any favours now, they will be saying at RN HQ. Why not bring the house down?