Sunak to face PMQs after inflation drops to 2.3%

Chris Mason

Political editor

Civil servants, advisers, MPs, you name it — there is, not for the first time this year, a swirl of chat within government and beyond that the prime minister might be about to call the general election, or at least have something to say about it.

Cards on the table: I am usually not that excitable about this kind of stuff, because it is usually quickly debunked.

This time, at least as I write this, it feels different.

For over 12 hours now I have been seeking a straight answer to whether Rishi Sunak is about to call an election and no straight answer has come.

Calls that are normally returned haven’t been.

It’s not a complete wall of silence, but the only question that matters isn’t being directly addressed.

Sunak appeared briefly in front of a camera this morning to welcome the fall in inflation, but stuck to his formulation that the general election would be in the second half of the year.

And if he did call it soon-ish, it probably would be — because July is, just, in the second half of 2024.

As I type this in Parliament’s Portcullis House, it is all folk are talking about.

Plausible cases are being made about why he could go for it now, and why he might not — by MPs of every political colour.

Over to him, and those around him, to clear it up.

Rishi Sunak has already hailed the fall in the headline inflation rate this morning, from 3.2% to 2.3%, as a major milestone for the UK, and he is likely to trumpet it as many times as he can in today’s PMQs.

He says inflation being “back to normal” is “an important moment for our country" and adds that he believes it shows "our plan is working”.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is likely to sound unimpressed. Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has said: "After 14 years of Conservative chaos, families are worse off. Prices in the shops have soared, mortgage bills have risen and taxes are at a 70-year high."

Another highlight should come when Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay returns to Parliament for the first time since losing his hands and feet to sepsis.

His wife Kati and daughter will watch his appearance at PMQs from the public gallery. It's a moment that will also likely be marked by Sunak and Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle.

Mackinlay says he wants to be known as the first "bionic MP" after being fitted with prosthetic legs and hands.

The prime minister has just left Downing Street and is making his way to the House of Commons.

As always, PMQs will kick off at 12:00 BST, so stay tuned as we'll be bringing you the latest from the Commons here.

As we reported earlier, UK inflation has fallen again - and is now very close to the Bank of England's 2% target. Speaking earlier this morning, Rishi Sunak said:

Daniel Wainwright

Data journalist

The Conservative average in our opinion poll tracker is the lowest that we’ve seen since October 2022, just as Liz Truss was leaving Downing Street.

About 23% of voters in Great Britain would back the party were a general election held tomorrow, the polls show. That excludes those who are undecided or wouldn’t vote at all.

Labour has a 21 percentage point lead.

Things aren’t moving a lot in the polls but look a little further down the chart and the Greens are at about 7%, which is the highest we have seen them at since 2021.

Reform UK is polling at an average of 11% but has come down a bit from its peak in early April.

The latest averages are calculated from polls by 12 different companies in the two weeks up to 20 May.

You can explore how things have changed over the past year and since 2020 in our interactive poll tracker.

Wednesday is here again - welcome to our live coverage of Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons.

Rishi Sunak has already hailed the fall in inflatoion this morning - from 3.2% to 2.3% - as a "major milestone for the UK", and he is likely to trumpet it as many times as he can.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is likely to sound unimpressed. Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said earlier: "After 14 years of Conservative chaos, families are worse off. Prices in the shops have soared, mortgage bills have risen and taxes are at a 70-year high."

Away from the front benches, a highlight should come when Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay returns to Parliament for the first time since losing his hands and feet to sepsis.

His wife Kati and daughter will watch his appearance at PMQs from the public gallery. It is also likely to be marked by Sunak, Starmer, and Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle.