TikTok and Title 42 rumours fuel human smuggling at the US border

Stepping into the brown waters of the Rio Grande, a small group of migrants is all smiles as they look off into the distance - the end of their long and dangerous journey into the US is just hundreds of feet away.

"Crossing the river safely," reads a message splayed across the top of the video, which includes the Spanish-language hashtag #AmericanDream. "Write to me and I'll give you more information."

The video is one of hundreds on social media that promise to help migrants start a new life in the US, securely and cheaply.

And while they seem innocent - even friendly - experts say they are deceptive. "This is advertised people smuggling," said Ed Calderon, a former Mexican police officer who specialises in the border's underworld. "And it's out in the open''.

Experts say these video clips - on platforms including TikTok, YouTube and WhatsApp - are the public face of a highly sophisticated, multi-billion dollar illegal industry that has taken advantage of confusion over changes in US immigration policies to spread disinformation and drive demand for their services.

Business is booming in the wake of the 11 May expiry of Title 42, a Donald Trump-era policy that allowed the US to swiftly deport people without an asylum hearing, using the coronavirus pandemic as justification.

The new approach encourages legal pathways, while at the same time also implementing strict penalties for those who cross illegally.

US officials say since Title 42 expired, migrant detentions have fallen by 70%, as more people come to the country legally.

Falling figures, however, do not mean falling profits for the criminal organisations that help migrants cross the border undetected.

"It's like Christmas for these smugglers right now," Mr Calderon told the BBC, adding that there is a perception among many migrants that successfully crossing the border without being detained is more difficult.

"That's all because of their propaganda, and it allows them to raise prices."

Mr Calderon's assessment was echoed by Adam Isacson, a migration and border expert from the Washington Office on Latin America, who said that demand for the services of smugglers is likely up "among those who want to enter the United States undetected" after Title 42.

"If numbers dip because of a tough new policy change, that absolutely raises the price of smuggling services," he added. x

The videos splashed across social media come in various forms, and are in many cases far from subtle.

Some are testimonials from seemingly satisfied customers, supposedly speaking from safe houses or city streets in the US.

"Here we are in New York City," the Venezuelan-accented narrator of one such video says while walking down a Manhattan street. "I'd like to thank my companions for getting me here safe and sound."

The caption of the video, from a "travel agency", asks viewers to send a message requesting help getting to the US without a visa.

Others show camouflaged smugglers leading groups of migrants through harsh terrain, or using ladders to swiftly get over border barriers. Many promise door-to-door services from as far away as South America to final destinations in the US.

Almost universally, they include a phone number to WhatsApp or a promise that more details - including price and payment plans - will be revealed in response to private messages.

The clandestine nature of the industry means that there are no reliable statistics on how many migrants find their smugglers on social media, or which posts are genuine or not.

Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, an associate professor at George Mason University who researches smuggling organisations, said that social media allows criminals to create a constant "sense of urgency" among migrants.

This, in turn, can ultimately drive migrants into the hands of smugglers, even among migrants who do not contact them online.

"Migrants are out of their comfort zone, and the trip can be horrible. There's a lot of things that take place in their psyche too," she said. "Smuggling networks understand that and work, organically, to feed misinformation, to feed the fear, so that the migrants try to make it however they can."

Experts say that prices for smuggling services vary enormously and often are determined by what the smugglers perceive a migrant - or their family - can pay, either up front or in instalments over time.

US officials have warned that migrants who don't pay are often forced to work for the cartels, sometimes as prostitutes, drivers or drug-runners. Some are simply held hostage in secret stash houses until the fees are fully paid, or threaten their families in the US or back home.

"It's a giant industry, and it's a cartel industry," Mr Calderon said. "Smuggling people across the border is one of their biggest money makers right now".

Mr Calderon estimated that even the most basic packages - which he described as a "let's see if we can get there" trip - would start at between $5,000 and $8,000 for a family of four starting in Mexico.

Current and former law enforcement sources in the US and Mexico estimated that typical prices are now around $15,000, rising to between $50,000 and $60,000 for many migrants coming from outside of Latin America. The BBC was unable to independently verify these prices.

The issue of disinformation on social media has increasingly caught the eye of US officials.

Just ahead of Title 42's expiry, for example, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned would-be migrants of falling to lies meant to "lure vulnerable people to the Southern Border".

Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security launched a "geo-targeted" digital advertising campaign on social media platforms across Central and South America. The ads are designed to reach migrants via their mobile devices, and direct them to government-run landing pages that clarify facts about US immigration policies and provide warnings about the dangers.

US officials have told the BBC the ads are still running even after the recent policy changes.

TikTok, for its part, has said it has a "zero tolerance" approach to human smuggling and has dedicated "significant investment" to finding and removing such content, with offending accounts permanently banned. The two videos mentioned in this story have already been removed, only to be swiftly replaced by others with similar content.

Alex Pacheco, a former Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) supervisor with 20 years' experience on the force, said that social media rumours are likely to continue to run rampant, with smugglers keen to exploit migrants' anxieties about the impact of domestic US policies and events on the border.

Mr Pacheco believes this trend will become even more evident as the US heads towards the 2024 presidential election.

"They'll always say that people need to cross now. Some people would have been told that the price will go up if you don't cross before Title 42, for example," Mr Pacheco said.

"Now they'll probably say that there may be a new administration, that the new president won't be Joe Biden, or that the border will go back to how it was in the previous administration… this all benefits the criminal organisation," he added. "That's capitalism."