Tory rebels back off Sunak coup despite losses

Here's two observations about the local election results.

First: The results have been pretty dismal for the Conservatives, with some limited exceptions, pointing the way to a Labour victory at the general election.

Second: Speaking to Conservative MPs, advisers and officials, any threat to Rishi Sunak's leadership appears to be fading fast.

To some, that's a paradox. The results so far indicate that the Conservatives are heading for defeat under Mr Sunak's leadership.

Why not, then, change leader? Yet there are still only two MPs who have publicly called for a change of leader - with no-one new joining that rebel band in response to these results.

For another group of Conservative MPs, the possibility of ousting yet another leader in such a short timeframe is too absurd even to mention.

Both sides agree that as it stands the prospect of a challenge to the prime minister's authority is receding.

"He'll survive," one frustrated rebel declared shortly after Ben Houchen's victory in the Tees Valley mayoral contest was confirmed.

That mayoral victory - plus what is generally expected to be a Conservative hold tomorrow in the West Midlands too - should not be underestimated psychologically for MPs.

"We need something positive to point to," a senior ally of Mr Sunak said as the counting got underway on Thursday. "If we have no positive then it's all rather tricky."

After a morning of unrelenting gloom, the Tees Valley became that positive totem - little wonder that Mr Sunak rushed there for an event with Lord Houchen.

To some, this is baffling.

Lord Houchen's vote fell substantially, albeit from an extraordinarily high starting point - a swing that would make every Conservative MP in the region very nervous indeed if replicated at a general election.

But politics is psychology as well as psephology. Seeing a popular independent-minded local incumbent defy a national trend is compelling for MPs, some of whom believe they have strong personal votes even if there is little academic evidence for that.

"The thing I notice from not just the mayoralties but some of the council results is that people who have been able to build a personal connection with voters and a personal brand are outperforming the trend," one minister said.

"People are looking at that and thinking - if I do everything I might just hold on. That may or may not be true, but that's how they'll interpret it."

To be clear, most Conservatives remain profoundly gloomy about the party's prospects at the general election.

One influential Conservative, explaining why there was now, they believed, "almost zero" chance of Mr Sunak being challenged, said that the results "confirm we're on track for a trashing"... but not an "extinction level" event.

Not everyone is completely writing off the possibility that Mr Sunak could come under threat.

One minister described a "relative silence" not only on the airwaves but also in some of the notorious party WhatsApp groups, saying this suggested that many were still adopting a "wait and see approach".

The minister added: "Things often move quickly despite calm in the immediate aftermath of results."

The Labour Party, meanwhile, are professing to be extremely satisfied, not just with the overnight results, but with the way the debate in the Conservative Party is developing.

"If they want to kid themselves that the mayoral results mean they should keep Rishi Sunak in place," one senior Labour source said, "then they can be our guests."