Trump's rivals hunt elusive momentum in fourth TV debate

Donald Trump will stay away when Republicans hold their fourth presidential debate on Wednesday night - and that's a big problem for his rivals.

The four challengers still in the running for the party's nomination in the 2024 election face growing pressure to generate attention and momentum for their campaigns.

But with the clear front-runner to win the Republican contest missing once again, the event in Alabama poses an existential question: if candidates debate on a stage and no-one is around to watch them, do they make a sound?

For all the sound and fury of the Trump-less debates so far this year, they have played out to a steadily declining viewership.

The first, held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, airing on Fox News, had an audience of 12.8 million. That dipped to 9.5 million for the second, on Fox's business cable network. The third, broadcast by NBC and streamed on its various digital outlets, tallied 7.5 million.

By contrast, the first Republican debate of 2015, which featured Mr Trump locking horns with Fox host Megyn Kelly, set a primary debate record with 24 million viewers. And while the audiences eventually declined that year, even the third debate of the cycle pulled in 14 million.

With only four Republicans on the stage in Tuscaloosa, this debate could feature more animated exchanges between the remaining candidates, as Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie jostle for position as the top alternative to Mr Trump when voting in the nomination process starts in January.

The potential for excitement is not likely to translate into higher ratings, however. The fourth debate is being aired on NewsNation, a two-year-old cable channel that averaged 106,000 prime-time viewers during the month of October. The debate will also be simulcast in about half the US on the CW, an over-the-air network whose evening audience also measures in the hundreds of thousands.

George Washington political science professor Todd Belt says the "news verdict" - how a debate is spun and played out in the media in the days afterwards - is more important than the number of eyeballs glued on the live broadcast, however.

"They need the media coverage, which gives you access to the campaign funding, the volunteers and the endorsements," he says. Each one of the candidates needs the political fuel the debate could give them to make a deep run in the primaries.

A smaller debate stage also presents a new opportunity for the presidential hopefuls, he says. The rules of the previous encounters encouraged participants to go on the attack as a means to generate additional speaking time among a crowded field. On Wednesday, the four will have more time to stretch their legs, rhetorically speaking, and make their pitch to voters.

Americans may have to dig around unfamiliar channels if they want to watch the debate, but that doesn't mean the candidates don't have a lot to gain - or lose.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Florida governor's tale of riches to rags has been much discussed, but each week brings a new example of the challenges the once near-frontrunner faces.

A primetime debate with California Governor Gavin Newsom last week did little to generate much excitement for his campaign. And this weekend saw another round of staff upheaval in the "independent" committee that has been bankrolling much of Mr DeSantis's cash-strapped bid.

The governor did display a bit more combativeness in his face-off with Mr Newsom than he had in the previous Republican debates. He could use more of that energy on Wednesday night if he wants to secure a position as the top alternative to Mr Trump.

"I think what Haley has done is she's gotten a lot of support from corporate media, and she's gotten a lot of support now from Wall Street interest," Mr DeSantis said in a recent interview with the conservative cable network Newsmax. "And what I would just say is she clearly is not a conservative."

At the moment, the former South Carolina governor is riding a mini-wave. Her previous debate performances have been well-received, she recently nabbed the backing of some key anti-Trump conservative donors and her polls numbers have been rising.

It's all relative, of course, since she still trails Mr Trump by dozens of points in most states. But she's recently started to sharpen her criticism of the man she once worked for as US ambassador to the UN.

"I agree with a lot of his policies, but the truth is, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him," Ms Haley said at a town hall in South Carolina. "We have too much division in this country, and too many threats around the world to be sitting in chaos once again."

If she can use the debate to deliver a knock-out punch to Mr DeSantis, however, she could expand her narrow path to becoming a serious challenger for the nomination.

"People who have withheld their endorsement, people who are campaign contributors and even some potential voters and volunteers are really waiting to see this Nikki Haley person, can she really separate from the pack and be that alternative?" Prof Belt says.

The fast-talking tech entrepreneur exploded on to the national stage with fiery performances in the first two debates. Since then, his campaign has sputtered. An initial polling bump has fizzled, and he's been viewed negatively by a growing number of Republican voters.

Adding insult to injury, last week his national political director left to join the Trump campaign.

It may be too late for Mr Ramawsamy to right his ship, but a more measured, mature debate showing might allow him to rehabilitate his image. At 38, he has a lot of time to figure out his next political act.

The former New Jersey governor only met the polling requirements to qualify for the Alabama debate stage late on. That has added to calls for Mr Christie to cede the field to more popular candidates.

He has positioned himself as one of the most outspoken anti-Trump candidates, using his debate appearances to blast the absent former president as being unqualified for a return to the White House.

But his continued presence in the field, his critics say, actually hurts the anti-Trump cause by siphoning off support from someone like Ms Haley.

This debate may be Mr Christie's last chance to make the case that he deserves to stick around until the voting starts.