Turbulent week puts PM's leadership back in frame

A month or so of relative tranquillity in the Conservative party has come to an abrupt halt.

The resurfacing of partygate has put Boris Johnson's premiership in the frame again.

A misreading of the mood among his MPs, prompting a hasty retreat over plans to delay a parliamentary investigation into whether he has misled MPs, has also raised questions about the new No 10 operation.

One former cabinet minister believes Boris Johnson is in trouble, and predicts numerous Conservative MPs will submit letters of no confidence after the local elections on 5 May.

"They'll be like sheep droppings," the grandee says of the many expected letters.

Allies of the prime minister expected no more than a mildly uncomfortable couple of days this week, as he faced Parliament for the first time since his fine for attending a No 10 lockdown party.

But two unexpected developments made this week much more difficult for Mr Johnson.

Firstly, this week showed that when attention turns again to partygate, it still has the ability to envelope the prime minister - even when the war in Ukraine is still the overwhelming challenge.

And secondly, the new government whips' office failed to detect the seriousness of the backbench rebellion against their plans to thwart an early investigation into the prime minister's parliamentary response.

A telling moment came on Tuesday night, when the prime minister addressed his parliamentary party a few hours after apologising to the Commons for his police fine.

One former minister complained that by the time of the party meeting, Mr Johnson's contrition had evaporated and he was simply playing to his core supporters. "It had a North Korean feel to it," the former minister complained.

Barbed remarks from critics can be discounted. In a more worrying development for the PM, some of his closest allies felt unnerved by his appearance.

One friend said: "The gags and the old routine were there. But you were left wondering whether it was like the end of [the political drama] House of Cards where you thought - has the magic gone?"

Critics are likely to keep their heads down in the run up to the local elections.

But once they are out of the way - and critics cannot be blamed for harming the party's electoral prospects - many predict another move against the prime minister.

Friends of former foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt are talking up his prospects as a potential leader. One ally talks of growing support for a man uncontaminated by Boris Johnson.

But Johnson loyalists are convinced he is safe.

One loyal minister, who believed the PM was in deep trouble during a turbulent period earlier this year, believes Mr Johnson actually enhanced his position this week by moving so quickly to avoid a backbench rebellion.

It is safe to say that backbench sniping against Boris Johnson from some quarters will never end.

The only question is whether it spreads beyond the usual suspects who have never reconciled themselves to Boris Johnson as prime minister.