'Wide-open championship, Mayo for Sam and players to watch'

In his first BBC Sport NI column, Donegal's 2012 All-Ireland winning captain Michael Murphy writes about how open the championship is, why he fancies Mayo this year and picks a few players to watch out for in 2023.

Go back to 2001 and the start of the All-Ireland qualifiers. You had seven genuine contenders: Galway, who won it, beaten finalists Meath, but also Tyrone, Derry, Kerry, Cork and Mayo.

Since then, it's always seemed like there's been a team to catch. You had Tyrone a few times, Kerry, the Cork team of 2009-11 and then Dublin for the last number of years.

But if you were to go out and ask 10 GAA followers, 'who is going to win Sam in 2023?' you'd get maybe five or six different answers. If you had done that last year, you would have gotten one or two.

It's a new-look championship this year with the round-robin format in the All-Ireland series. There has been an outcry for this year for years.

In Ulster, we've always been proud of our provincial championship and believe it's extremely competitive. But it's always been a different story in the other provinces, and as a result, there's long been a view that the competitive nature of Ulster gives those teams an unfair advantage when they go on to the All-Ireland series.

So, the GAA have stumbled upon a mixed approach. They're still giving the provincials their day in the sun, but they're providing a level-playing field in the Sam Maguire with the four groups of four.

It's a hybrid model that ticks a lot of boxes, but once we get stuck into the All-Ireland series, it will dawn on a lot of people that the provincial championships don't matter as much anymore.

If this structure is kept, it will become clear that the two main competitions moving forward are the National League, where your place will be determined for the upcoming championship, and the All-Ireland series.

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When I was playing, I loved winning Ulster. When we were growing up, Ulster was everything and when you won it, it would give you such a kick going into an All-Ireland quarter-final, but that quarter-final is no longer guaranteed.

Yes, if you win it, you'll be seeded well in the group, but you'll still have three huge games to overcome to get to an All-Ireland quarter-final, so the declining relevance of the provincials is clear to see.

One of the great things about this new structure is that you'll get home and away games in the All-Ireland. It reminds me of the Super 8s. I remember playing with Donegal away to Roscommon down in Hyde Park in 2018, and the atmosphere was brilliant.

You'd have only played that game in league before and not in the championship, so you're going to get really strong crowds across the country during the summer months, which is something to really look forward to.

This could finally be Mayo's year

For me, the top-tier All-Ireland contenders are Mayo and Dublin, with Kerry, Galway and Derry in the next tier.

But I really think this could be Mayo's year. They've looked so measured under Kevin McStay and have unearthed some really strong young players.

Mayo have all the momentum. Some teams can crumble under the pressure, but Mayo seem to be one of the teams that revel in the chaos and circus that comes with mazy championship runs. They're going to be really hard to stop this summer.

You'd have thought that losing Lee Keegan and Oisin Mullin would be a huge double blow, but I've been extremely impressed with the new full-back line David McBrien, Jack Coyne and Sam Callinan. How do Mayo continue to unearth these new combative defenders!?

A rejuvenated Mayo finished top of Division One before beating Connacht rivals Galway in the final at Croke Park

You add in the consistency of Jack Carney and Jordan Flynn in the middle eight and the added influence now of Aidan O'Shea at the edge of the square, and they're ticking a lot of boxes.

For me, their attack this year is what will set them apart from previous Mayo teams. They're still defending well, but going forward they have a number of different weapons and look capable of ending the county's 72-year wait for Sam.

As for Kerry, coming off an All-Ireland win is tricky. You have a longer year, running into club championships, and you have different social commitments and distractions that come with being All-Ireland champions.

Jack O'Connor tried to blood new players in the league, but it was evident that Kerry still lean on the brilliance of David Clifford and Sean O'Shea. Their defensive solidarity - masterminded by Paddy Tally - is what really got them over the line last year, however on the league showings to date I'm not convinced that this will hold up this time around.

But Derry cannot be discounted either. They've had a phenomenal couple of years, moving up the divisions and winning back the Ulster title. Derry have also shown this year that they can mix it with Dublin, edging a thrilling game at Celtic Park that felt significant.

I know the Division Two final at Croke Park didn't go their way, but Derry have all the ingredients. They have a really strong middle eight and Ciaran McFaul's anticipated return for the championship will be a huge addition.

Their only potential weakness is squad depth. They struggled without Eoin McEvoy and Chrissy McKaigue last week and when you add Conor Glass, who came off injured, into that, that's three of their key players they struggled to replace in the red heat of battle.

Do Derry have the squad size to come through a heavy championship and feature in the latter stages of the All-Ireland series? Time will tell.

Darren McCurry kicked 0-33 to help Tyrone retain their Division One status

Then there's Tyrone, who I reckon are this year's dark horses. Tyrone have always had a strong pedigree and tradition and if you look at some of their All-Ireland wins, they came through long backdoor runs. They'd maybe get a hit early in the year but were able to put together a run and all of a sudden they'd land in an All-Ireland final and win it.

Earlier in the year, there may have been serious doubts over the team, but they responded and finished the league really well, with two big wins over Ulster rivals Monaghan and Armagh.

They have their warriors in Mattie Donnelly, Ronan McNamee and Peter Harte, they have the attacking flair of Darragh and Ruairi Canavan in there, Darren McCurry's kicking well and Conn Kilpatrick's playing really well too.

Tyrone will relish this overall structure. I'll be keeping a close eye on them.

Predictions and players to watch

Ulster: Derry

Munster: Kerry

Connacht: Mayo

Leinster: Dublin

All-Ireland: Mayo

Young players to watch: Jack Carney and Jack Coyne (both Mayo): Carney's a big rangy player in the half-forward line who's really strong on the ball, while Coyne has been a tenacious presence at corner-back. Ethan Doherty (Derry): I've been impressed with Doherty over the last few years and I'm tipping him to play a key role in Derry's championship campaign after a strong showing in the league.

Player to watch: Look, it's simple, it just has to be David Clifford. He is that good. In terms of a points-scorer, I'm not sure we've seen the like of it before in the GAA. Everyone again will be glued to watching the Kerry master in action.

Michael Murphy was speaking to BBC Sport NI's Matt Gault

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