Will the Conservatives hold on to traditionally-safe North Shropshire seat?

The ladies behind the counter in Sweet Treats on Wem High Street have a rule: "We don't talk politics!"

It's proving harder than usual though, as the area prepares to elect a new MP in the forthcoming North Shropshire by-election, prompted by the resignation of Owen Paterson who was found to have broken parliamentary lobbying rules.

While weighing out some coconut mushrooms, Kate Williams explains she has one condition for anyone hoping to get her vote on 16 December: they must be local.

"They need to be aware it's a market county, a rural area, there's no point in somebody coming from London or Birmingham or Manchester."

That might be hard to hear for the Conservative candidate, Neil Shashtri-Hurst, who's from Birmingham.

The barrister and former Army medic is hoping to hold this seat which has been represented by the Tories in one form or another for almost 200 years.

Labour, who finished second in 2019, are hoping to capitalise on their candidate Ben Wood's local links, and the Liberal Democrat Helen Morgan will aim to improve on her 10% vote share.

Reform, formerly the Brexit party, will aim to pick up disaffected Conservatives and the Green Party will hope dominance of Oswestry Town Council can earn them more support.

The odd tractor driving through the centre of Wem, one of several market towns dotted around North Shropshire, serves as a reminder that not only is farming the dominant industry, but also that it can feel a world away from Westminster.

While the constituency's former MP found himself at the centre of a political storm, it is local issues which seem to be on most people's minds as they weigh up how to vote.

Hospital and ambulance services along with transport links and broadband connectivity come up time and time again when talking to voters, and all parties report hearing similar subjects on the doorstep.

Tucked away amongst rolls of material and boxes ready for shipping, Lisa Ward, who runs a curtain and blinds shop just off the high street, predicts a possible upset.

The business has survived the pandemic and she's grateful for government support but says the integrity of politicians will definitely be a factor.

"That's on people's minds," she explains, but says she isn't sure sending an MP from another party back to Westminster will make much difference.

"Part of you thinks, 'If you have a change could that solve anything?' But in all honesty I don't know whether it could at the moment, whoever was in. We're up against very difficult times."

In public and private, local Conservatives seem confident but not complacent about holding this safest of Tory seats, but some argue they can't take anything for granted.

One local councillor said other parties would be "in with a chance" because of how the election came about and that accusations of sleaze at a national level were "bound to affect things".

Boris Johnson's visit to the constituency on Friday may offer the Conservative candidate a boost, but there are nerves in Tory circles about how well the party's support will hold up.

The newest Conservative MP - for Old Bexley and Sidcup - Louie French told supports in an email on Friday "we're in an incredibly tough battle", and urged party members to donate.

The Liberal Democrats are doing their best to position themselves as the main challengers to the Tories. The assistant in Wem's only bookshop says they've had four yellow leaflets through the door already.

Canvassers have seen a "groundswell" of support for the party, one local Lib Dem source said, but while the party is emboldened by its victory in Chesham and Amersham, senior figures caution there is "a mountain to climb".

Labour, however, appear confident of at least retaining second place which would be seen by local party activists as an acceptable result. They object to the Lib Dems' claim to be the main contender to the Conservatives, with one source insisting Labour remains ahead.

While several shadow cabinet figures have visited North Shropshire, there is frustration at Sir Keir Starmer's absence from the campaign so far.

So while it would take a political earthquake for this seat to change hands, among shoppers in Whitchurch town centre indecision and uncertainty are in the air.

"I haven't made up my mind yet," said Gwen Brocklehurst, a pensioner whose father was a miner and always voted Labour, but remains open to persuasion herself.

Another retiree, Joe Leadbetter-Smith, raises immigration as an issue which might sway his vote. "We need to do something about it," he says, but is happy with Boris Johnson's Conservatives in government. "I like him, I think he's doing a good job."

Behind him is a boarded up shop, though, a reminder of the struggle small towns like Whitchurch can face. Although there are several local independent businesses seemingly doing well, many here struggle to see the evidence of promised investment.

"We've had enough of promises, they need to step up." Sheila Chase says determinedly while discussing the election with a friend opposite the town hall, which serves as a community hub for local events.

"I think the Conservatives are going to struggle. When people get disillusioned they have a right to change their mind. It won't be a walk in the park."