Will there be more fines for No 10 parties?

Allegations about lockdown parties in Downing Street have moved from Westminster rumour to cold, hard fact.

Since the Metropolitan Police launched their investigation in January, the force has issued more than 50 fixed penalty notices (FPNs) for breaking Covid laws in No 10 and Whitehall.

Among those receiving them were Prime Minister Boris Johnson, his wife Carrie, and his chancellor Rishi Sunak.

Ministers have rallied round the pair and even Tory MPs who had been calling for Mr Johnson to quit when Partygate last dominated the headlines are saying now is not the time for him to go.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told the BBC that his boss was "mortified" by the fine, but added that "everyone is human, people make mistakes" and you should "judge somebody overall for the way they perform."

Some Tory MPs have argued that Mr Johnson has apologised for spending, as one put it, "nine minutes in his office at 2pm, as work colleagues came in and wished him a happy birthday" and is now "getting on with the job" he was elected to do.

But there could be more fines to come for those who live and work in Downing Street, including the prime minister.

The BBC is aware of three events that have led to FPNs so far - two publicly confirmed and one from our sources - so fines have been sent to people who attended:

But the Met Police's investigation is into 12 events in total, meaning there are nine more gatherings on the force's list that could result in sanctions:

The prime minister is known to have been at at least two of these - the garden party and the spad's leaving do - and reports suggest he could have been at up to three more.

So in theory, Mr Johnson could face more fines too, depending on the outcome of the police investigation.

The force has said they won't name those who receive FPNs, so many who receive them will remain unknown.

But No 10 promised to reveal if the prime minister was fined - as they did on Tuesday.

And 24 hours later they committed to updating the press on "major developments", so we would expect that to include any more fines too.

We have pushed the Met to give us more detail on the inquiry, but they have repeatedly refused to give what they call a "running commentary".

They have also declined to tell us how long they expect the investigation to go on for.

However, after Tuesday's headline-grabbing fines, they did release a statement, saying their work "continues to progress".

They added that they were "continuing to assess significant amounts of investigative material from which further referrals may be made to ACRO [Criminal Records Office]" - which in plain speech means there is still a lot of evidence from the gatherings to sift through and there could be more fines hitting the doormats of partygoers.

And even when the investigation comes to a close, there is still the little matter of a senior civil servant's report to contend with.

Sue Gray became a household name when the PM appointed her to carry out an inquiry of her own into the gatherings in Downing Street during lockdowns.

But her much anticipated report was delayed after the Met announced it was looking into the events as a result of information Ms Gray's team had passed onto officers.

Ms Gray did publish an interim report, blaming a "failure of leadership" for allowing parties to take place and criticising the "excessive consumption of alcohol".

But her full findings will be released when the police's job is done.

Remember, her report isn't limited to those 12 that reached the threshold for criminal investigation - it will cover all the allegations made.

And some close to the process have told BBC political correspondent Nick Eardley that the findings are expected to be detailed and damaging for those who attended parties.

Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak have apologised to the public and promised to get back to focusing on voter priorities - including the cost of living crisis and the war on Ukraine.

Yet it remains uncertain if their determination to stay in post will overcome any future twists and turns in this saga, whether it be fines or further damning details.