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Ireland must beat Italy and hope other results go their way if they are to land a third straight Six Nations title
Matt Gault
BBC Sport NI Senior Journalist in Rome
Men's Six Nations: Italy v Ireland
Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome Date: Saturday, 15 March Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Coverage: Listen on Radio 5 Sports Extra, BBC Radio Ulster and BBC Sounds; text updates and highlights on BBC Sport website and app; watch on ITV1
Over the past few years, Ireland have revelled in writing their own Six Nations stories.
In 2023, a final-day victory over England secured the Grand Slam on home soil.
Twelve months ago, beating Scotland in their last game kept the title in Dublin.
Before both of those games, Ireland knew that victory would be enough to finish top, but the outlook this time around is comparatively bleak.
Even an emphatic bonus-point win over Italy on Saturday will only be enough to prolong their slim hopes of completing the hat-trick. Whether or not those hopes are realised depends on what happens in the two later games.
Losing control of the narrative is a difficult pill for a group who have spent the past two years looking down from the top, but last week's devastating loss to France has left them in the unenviable position of starting Super Saturday third in the table.
If they beat Italy, they must then let fate run its course when Wales host second-placed England and leaders France take on Scotland in Paris.
As with most Super Saturdays, there are permutations aplenty, but for Ireland the plan is quite straightforward: get the job done against Italy, park themselves in front of a TV and hope the Six Nations gods are feeling green.
Ireland had much bigger hopes for Saturday. The plan was for the Eternal City to provide an epic backdrop for another Grand Slam and the storybook ending for retiring centurions Peter O'Mahony, Conor Murray and Cian Healy.
The Triple Crown-sealing win over Wales in round three certainly had them on track, only for France to rock up to Dublin and rip Irish plans to shreds.
But even if the 30,000 or so Irish fans that will descend on Stadio Olimpico are approaching Super Saturday with a sense of anti-climax, captain Caelan Doris insists such a grim disposition has not infiltrated the squad.
"Obviously last week was very disappointing and it changes the nature of the end of it, but for us it's still about finishing with our best performance. The rest is out of our control," said Doris.
"But the three lads [O'Mahony, Murray and Healy], what they've contributed, the group we have, we really want to finish with our best performance yet and that's been a key theme through the week.
"Obviously there was quite a bit of disappointment for 24, 48 hours post-game and it can be tricky seeing some of the clips back and the images and the frustration around that.
"But we turned the page quite quickly and are getting excited about a special weekend over here with our best performance yet in front of 25,000 or 30,000 Irish travelling over, which will be incredibly special."
Jack's back at 10
Image source, Getty Images
Crowley (right) is restored to the XV for the first time since November after six straight starts for Prendergast (left)
Given the nature of last week's defeat and the angry fallout from France captain Antoine Dupont's injury, Ireland did not need any fresh headlines this week.
But interim boss Simon Easterby has provided one anyway by reinstating Jack Crowley as his starting fly-half at the end of a week in which the player's future has been the subject of much speculation.
Crowley played every minute of last year's title triumph but was usurped by Sam Prendergast during the autumn Tests, and has featured predominantly at full-back in his appearances off the bench in recent weeks.
Prendergast started six games in a row, but having endured a difficult afternoon against a ferocious and rapid French unit, he starts on the bench while Crowley is given a timely opportunity to remind the Irish coaching staff - and British and Irish Lions boss Andy Farrell - of his credentials at this level.
Crowley - who made his Six Nations debut in Rome two years ago - will look to breathe new life into an Irish attack that struggled to turn 22 visits into points against France.
Also returning are first-choice wingers Mack Hansen and James Lowe, with Garry Ringrose restored to the midfield after missing the France defeat through suspension.
Jack Conan - outstanding off the bench in recent weeks - gets a rare start at blind-side flanker in what is perhaps a glimpse into the post-O'Mahony era.
In terms of facing Italy, Doris said Ireland are confident but not complacent.
Ireland have only lost once to the Azzurri in the Six Nations - in 2013 - and will be hopeful of unlocking an Italian defence that has shipped 25 tries in four games.
This is far from a foregone conclusion, though. Italy beat Wales here in round two and scored six tries across their defeats by France and England, suggesting they have more than enough firepower to trouble Ireland.
Italy boss Gonzalo Quesada made an eye-catching selection call of his own this week, too, dropping captain Michele Lamaro in one of seven changes.
Doris has called for Ireland's "best performance". If they deliver on that front, they should have enough to end their campaign on a high note.
Whether that is the extent of their Super Saturday satisfaction will, however, depend on how the drama unfolds in Cardiff and Paris.